Saturday, December 31, 2005

On The Hash...Marks BCS Predictions V1.0 (by Creek)

I present to you part one of my BCS predictions:

The "with any luck both teams will lose" Fiesta Bowl: Ohio St. -5.5 Notre Dame

Ohio St. Offense vs Notre Dame Defense

Ohio St. Rush Rank: 189.5yds pg (30th) Notre Dame Run D: 119.4yds pg (26th)
Pass Rank: 215yds pg (68th) Pass EFF D: 121.4yds pg (53rd)
Total Offense: 404.6yds pg (38th) Total Defense: 376.9yds pg (63rd)
Scoring Offense: 32.5ppg (27th) Scoring Defense: 23.6ppg (45th)

Notre Dame's defense has better numbers than you would think, but against teams with offenses that could possibly keep up with their own (Michigan, Michigan St, Purdue, USC), they went 2-2. I was just about ready to say their defense was good enough to allow their offense to win this one, but giving up 31 points to Stanford is making me reconsider. They do get turnovers to bail themselves out of trouble, which is usually the sign of a defense being just good enough not to lose games, but Troy Smith has only thrown 4 INT's this season, and it's likely that at least one of his big play receivers will open a lot. If they double Holmes, Ginn will have a huge day, and vice versa. If they don't double either, well, then they'll both be open. Either way, it ain't lookin' too good for the ND secondary. Although, you can never count out a guy like Zbikowski. The thing that makes me give Ohio state the edge, is how ND handled Drew Stanton. I know, I know, that was september, but that the last QB they played who resembles Troy Smith (No Brandon Kirsch, you don't count), and Stanton torched their defense. While Smith isn't the passer Stanton is, he's a better runner, and has a better supporting cast.

Slight edge- Ohio St.

Notre Dame Offense vs Ohio St. Defense

Notre Dame Rush Rank: 154.8yds pg (48th) Ohio St. Run D: 74.5yds pg (1st)
Pass Rank: 334.3yds pg (4th) Pass EFF D: 115.8yds pg (38th)
Total Offense: 489yds pg (10th) Total Defense: 275.3yds pg (4th)
Scoring Offense: 38.2ppg (6th) Scoring Defense: 14.8ppg (7th)

Strength against strength. The indestructible force against the immovable object. And all that other fluff. I know both units are very good, but which is better is tough. Weis' offense has proven to be good enough to score against good defenses, and Ohio State's defense held 7 offenses under 20 points this year, and 4 of those were under 10 points. I don't see Darius Walker playing much of a factor in this game, but Quinn could have a big game if all the stars allign, or if tOSU plays like they did against Michigan St, and Texas. Problem is, both of those QB's are mobile guys, and Brady Quinn is, well, not. Of course, I have to mention the linebacking corps for tOSU, and the fact they're minus Bobby Carpenter (who will probably be crying come kickoff. Boo-hoo Bobby, boo-hoo). This one is just too close to call.


Special Teams

Both Zbikowski and Ginn are homerun threats, which is odd for a football game. Ohio State's special teams has the edge over just about everybody.

Edge- tOSU

Prediction: tOSU 33 ND 27

The "we're stuck with the Big East team" Sugar Bowl: Georgia -8.5 West Virginia

Georgia Offense vs West Virginia Defense

Georgia Rush Rank: 157yds pg (46th) West Vriginia Rush D: 99.3yds pg (13th)
Pass Rank: 225yds pg (52nd) Pass EFF D: 111.6yds pg (23rd)
Total Offense: 382yds pg (55th) Total D: 293.5yds pg (8th)
Scoring Offense: 29.1ppg (44th) Scoring D: 16.3ppg (10th)

Before we get started, you have to remember that one of these teams plays in the toughest BCS conference, and the other plays in the (by far) easiest. Giving up 14 points to Florida, and giving up 14 points to SOUTH Florida is just a little different. What I'm saying here, is that West Virginia's defense isn't that good, and Georgia's offense is better than the numbers show. I would even go as far to say that Georgia will rush for close to 200 yards. In fact, I think I just did.

Edge- Georgia

West Virginia Offense vs Georgia Defense

West Virginia Rush Rank: 262.5yds pg (5th) Georgia Rush D: 124yds pg (29th)
Pass Rank: 116.2yds pg (116th) Pass EFF D: 109.1yds pg (9th)
Total Offense: 378.6yds pg (58th) Total Defense: 297.8yds pg (11th)
Scoring Offense: 31.55ppg (33rd) Scoring Defense: 14.6ppg (4th)

Obviously West Virginia will be running the ball all game, and Georgia is fast enough to keep up with them. Should be interesting to see how WVA's freshman react to playing in a big time game like this one, against a top 5 defense no less. Georgia's defense still has its stars (Moses & Blue), but is a better unit than it was in years passed. Caught Pat White twice this year (against Maryland and South florida) and if he, or Bednarik is forced to throw, Georgia will destroy them.

Edge- Georgia

Special Teams

Hmmm... it seems no one offers field goal stats for college football, however, I do seem to remember Georgia's kicker leading the Dawgs to victory in the game Shockley got hurt in. Even if WVA is better, it won't be enough.

Edge- Who cares

Prediction: UGA 27 WVA 10

Expect part 2 as the games get closer, because THAT'S... How I roll.


dunzo1 said...

Go Dawgs!!!

Professor Ellis D Trails said...

west virginia looked unstoppable, what a great game

nice call on the ohio state game.

Professor Ellis D Trails said...

what happened to your predictions for the outback, cotton, gator, and capital one bowls

Professor Ellis D Trails said...

no prediction on the orange or rose bowls