Since Creekie had too much life this week to give a full column & we don’t have scheduled content for tomorrow, I thought I’d have a look at how I did as a fantasy baseball prognosticator. There some brilliance, some wisdom, some lameness and some utter stupidity. Let’s break it down:
BRILLIANT:
- Ryan Howard will be a consensus 1-2 round draft pick in '07 and he’s going 5-10 now. Grab him – he’s Big Papi without the learning curve.
- Odd to put a second year player who reminds me of George Brett (the best unjuiced hitter of the last quarter century) up as a Snoozer pick, but Garrett Atkins (Col) will make a great safety pick at the position. Could even challenge for the NL batting title.
- Loves me some Carlos Guillen. Suck it, Creekie!!
- Joe Mauer is my only unqualified stud at the catcher position. Only player I'm over-drafting this year...
- Lance Berkman is a pure stick who got waylayed a little by injury last season. There are a lot worse batters being drafted waaay ahead of him. Smarten up
- he's not really a sleeper because he was drafted pretty high last but, though Vernon Wells was overrated last year, he's underrated for '06 & the reason for both is the same. BEWARE when a hitter (who's not Miggy Cabrera) becomes the lone good hitter in a lineup. Pitchers can and do save their best stuff for that target player in those situations. When they don't have to worry about exhausting themselves for the rest of the order, they can pitch to one player at closer velocity without consequence. ... this was Wells' situation last year
- Brad Lidge has the very best stuff in baseball. I say his '05 post-season failures mess up his head
WISE:
- All the knowsters are picking Casey Kotchman (Pocoima Angels) as their sleeper this year, but I got a question: when nobody's picking Sean Casey or Lyle Overbay in the 1st 20 rds this season, why would anyone be excited about someone who aspires to be Sean Casey or Lyle Overbay?!....
- 2B DUDS: I'll go for my best sleeper of '05, Jorge Cantu, to fall back to earth. Marcus Giles is also looking like he'll never deliver on his '04 promise.
- Miggy Cabrera is the second best hitter in baseball (he moves ahead of ARod this year)
- David Wright is Scott Rolen with speed, Scott Rolen is David Wright on speed. Rolen is my pick for bargain (7-9th rd) of the year
- Morgan Ensberg's '04 was soooo bad that his excellent '05 doesn't yet have me convinced.
- Clint Barmes comes back to earth bigtime this season - wouldnt take him in the 20th. Are Bobby Crosby & Khalil Greene the same person? They have the same skill set, faith of their teams and, at best, only one of them ever seems to be playing (due to injury) at any one time. Seattle's Jlo - I just found out Yahoo has him eligible only at 2b for some reason. He came up with phenom written all over him & may be worth giving a 2nd chance .
- No real duds in the outfield this year, but a couple worth mentioning. JayBay is being drafted in the 1st round by some this year. That's a mistake...I was going to announce that this is the year that Sheff goes bad, but he's sinking like a stone in avg draft position, so i guess you already know that.
- Pedro has BMS - Baseball Munchhausen Syndrome. He LIKES having an injury situation goin on from which to frustrate the living bejeesus out of his owners for weeks on end & then rescue your opinion of him with 2-3 starts where he pitches as only Pedro can, then rinse & repeat. The toe gives him the perfect excuse for one of those years...
WEAK:
- Jay Gibbon will have the most invisible good season in baseball this year. (well, I got invisible right
- Mark Loretta will win the batting title this year
- 2B STUDS: Chase Utley will dominate his position like no one else in '06. Thanks to Creekie for putting me on him early last season...Rickie Weeks will be what Utley was in ‘05
- Jhonny Peralta scares me a little, but the speed with which the Indians moved him to 3rd in the batting order once he started hitting & how he thrived once they did was the best surprise of last season.
- Never liked Andruw, never will.
- I am flat freaking amazed that Jeff Francoeur is lasting to round 10 in many drafts. My boy Frenchy is Vlad Guerrero in the Montreal years, kids, simple as that
- I didn't like the way Jeremy Hermida looked when he came up last year, but a look as his minor-league numbers convince me he was pressing and will do very nicely this season.
- Brady Clark is virtually the same player as Coco Crisp. Why are they being drafted well over a hundred spots apart? (weak because, even tho clark & crisp were close to equal uts cuz Coco was sooo lame)
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- Rich Harden's shit is as filthy as Johan's - remember I said that
JUST PLAIN WRONG:
- Dan Johnson will have a better '06 than Prince Fielder
- 2B DUDS: Soriano's too easy. Robinson Cano is a bum who wouldn't merit discussion if he wasn't in that lineup.
- I really should have put John Patterson in the Studs section off his promising '05, but it's only in the last couple of days that word of his new changeup has me convinced this kid could be the Chris Carpenter for this season
- the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff - add the best pitching coach in baseball history to some of the sickest ballthrowers in the game & summin's GOTTA happen
- this is the year KRod's arm blows up & we lose him for a year-and-a-half
- Bobby Cox should be smart enough to put Joey Devine into the closer role sooner rather than later. Grab him off the WW the very second you hear he might be thinking of doing that. You're welcome.
And there you have it. I think, all things considered, you did better by listening to me than not, but I won’t be offended if I hear some giggling. Play hard -
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