Monday, September 04, 2006

The Idol speaks

What better way to kick off opening week than the prognostications of bryanquanlamboldayne himself?! The story behind this is that BL was among those Fanballers i invited to be part of the LOCKERROOM season preview. He put together this incisive & insightful piece for us (thx), but sent it to the wrong (by one letter) email addy. He did not get notice of this until it was too late to put in our guest preview. Can't let all of Lambone's fine work go to waste & any opportunity to post the 2nd greatest photograph of all time (our mascot being #1), so here, for your dining & dancing pleasure, is the naked truth:


Studs

QB Peyton Manning - He’ll be at the top of the position year end and year out. He’s he guy who defines what a good QB in this league and will bring you points in any game you start him in. No running game? Who cares! He’s surrounded by passing talent as well, from Harrison to Wayne, to Stokely to Clark.
Tom Brady - Beast of a QB and super consistent. The kind of guy you draft and don’t worry about a backup until much later. Not many QBs can retain this position without having a healthy WR on the roster.
Kurt Warner - He’s surrounded by potential and has more weapons then Jackie Chan in a warehouse full of ladders. Injury risks are always a problem, but there’s no question he’ll be at the top of the QB mountain while he can stand upright.
Matt Hasselback - Tom Brady light. Has a beast of a RB to take the pressure off of him, and has a lot of talent and potential around him to create plays.


RB

Shaun Alexander - No explanation needed. So he lost Hutch - big freakin’ deal. Hutch wasn’t the reason Alexander has been dominant, Alexander is the reason. The team is still a stud team, the line is still a stud line.
LT2 - He’ll be this year’s top back. His main “question” was a questionable QB, and Rivers has looked good in preseason (minus his 3 fumble performance, but LT wasn’t playing - so maybe that would have lightened his load a bit).
Tiki Barber - Father time may be catching up with Tiki, but I doubt he’s fast enough to catch him - at least this year. Barber stays in scary shape, the kind of shape your wife looks at you when you’re sitting on the couch with your hands in your pants and wants you to be in. That’s right, your wife wishes right now that she was sleeping with Tiki Barber, and not you. You know what else that means, she wishes she was sleeping with Ronde Barber, and not you. Sucks, don’t it?
Ronnie Brown - I know I know I know. He’s never carried a full load. EVER. No this doesn’t mean he’s a “cum dodger” - Brown split time last year with Ricky Williams, and throughout college split time with Carnell Williams. I did a bit of research, he split time in high school as well! So why is he on the stud list? Well, in my mind he showed last year that he has everything it takes to be a Greg Jones power back and has moves to be elusive when needed. Think Shaun Alexander 2 and be stoked when you end up with him with your 9th overall pick. I would consider him with the 5th overall.


WR

Torry Holt - He’s your top guy this year, bad sternum and all. Undeniably the main target in St. Louis and while he looks like a mix between a black Mr. Belding (of saved by the bell lore) and an alien, his numbers sure are extraterrestrial.
Roy Williams - He could go on a sleeper list too I suppose, but with Martz “running” things (that’s a joke for any of you familiar with Martz’s system) - and practically 0 competition at WR and no TE, there’s no way Roy doesn’t put up HUGE numbers this year.
Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin - Never have I seen a tandem so highly regarded. I’ve seen owners draft both of these guys, with full on intentions of playing both the same week, every week. I think, by the end of the year, both of these guys will be top notch studs - if maybe some hot and cold streaks a long the way.
Chris Chambers - He’ll be a bonified stud by the end of the year. Culpepper comes in and will do big things with this Dolphin offense.


TE

Antonio Gates - No explanation needed. In TE required leagues, you can’t draft this guy too high. He’s a #1 WR in a TE mold.
Randy McMichael - WHAT?!?! I think with Daunte checking down to his TE (ala what made Wiggins even on the radar), McMike will be a TE #1b this year. People have always claimed the gap between Gates and the rest of the field was narrowing, and here’s my pick for that.
Jeremy Shockey - He’d a stud. Has the occasional cold streak, but he lives in New York - what do you expect? A lot of Eli’s growing pains will be taken out on Shockey, especially with the problems Burress is having.
Todd Heap - With McNair at the helm of this offense, I predict big things for Heap. Of course, I’ve been saying that every year and he gets injured, putting the claim on the back peddle for next season.


DUDS


QB

Brunell, Favre, Leinert, Brooks Brunell came into the season so highly regarded due to all of the offseason moves the Redskins made. Well, if everyone lives to that potential - the skins will have to score 19091790 points per game, and it’s not going to happen. The reason? Brunny. “Old Man Winter” Favre should have retired this season. He comes back to a team with no offensive line, no running game, and only his buddy Donald Driver to even have a scent of what a passing game should be like. Schedule a press conference Favre, your team sucks. Oh wait! It’s the most talented team ever, I forgot. Speaking of talent, Matt Leinert falls into a load of it in Arizona. The greatest QB of all time to ever come out of college lands on a pot of gold in a place with a great RB, great WRs, a talented and mammothly big TE - but wait - he’s behind Kurt Warner and relying on an injury. Oh yeah, he also held out of most of training camp and doesn’t know the system and has looked terrible in preseason. Even more terrible than that girl you took home from the bar when you couldn’t remember your own name after downing 15 shots of Jager. As for Aaron Brooks - people said this is the year he connects with Moss and becomes the QB he always dreamed he could be. I say he’s the weird cousin that everyone in the family looks down on because he tries to be like everyone else but just fails and - oh wait, that’s Marcus now. Sorry.


RB

Barlow, Julius Jones, Packers RBs, Larry Johnson Kevan Barlow has created a metric shitton of hype this offseason by going to the Jets. I knew this would be bad when Lee Suggs was initially signed and everyone had an orgasm over it (I still chuckle at the idiots drafting him in the 7th-12th the day the news broke). When Barlow was next, everyone was elated. I laugh and spit in the face of those who think Barlow will be a fantasy factor this year. Julius Jones isn’t a BAD back, but he’s sharing time with Barber and I believe is more dwelled in a RBBC than anyone else out there. His potential and consistency are limited and the injury bug is always there as well - his production potential doesn’t justify his late 2nd/early 3rd ADP. Packers RBs should go without saying. They’ve looked horrible in preseason, can’t stay healthy, can’t hold on the football, terrible offensive line. It’s an ugly situation there, and I’m not talking about the piss and puke colored uniforms. Larry Johnson, on the DUD list?!?!?! The guy has lost his entire offensive line practically, and doesn’t have the talent around him anymore to open things up. The Dick Vermiel era is gone, and Herm Edwards’ running system failed miserably last year when he didn’t have the receivers to open things up for his back. I’m not saying Johnson will be a terrible back, he’ll still put up great points - but nothing worthy of his top 3 (oftentimes #1 overall) selection.


WR

Santana Moss, Lee Evans, Darrell Jackson, Troy Williamson Santana Moss would be a great WR, if you could replay the 5 games where he scored 80% of his points last year over and over. Unfortunately, this guy relies on the deep ball, and that makes him terribly inconsistent. With Portis being banged up, I doubt teams are going to stack the Redskins and let mini-Moss run rampant like last year. Lee Evans has a ton of talent, unfortunately all the talent in the world means jackshit with JP Losman (now the starting QB for the Bills) at the helm. Whoopty Doo. Evans will have an occasional good game, and is probably good for his ADP - but temper your expectations. Darrell Jackson is a stud WR in a stud offense with a stud QB and a stud RB to take attention off of him. Why is he on this list? Because he’s being drafted anywhere from the 2nd to late 4th and his KNEE IS ABOUT TO FALL OFF. A player currently injured like he is should have their expectations dimmed down juuuuuuuuuuuuust a touch. Williamson? He’s a burner, incredibly fast and gets downfield and open fast. The problem? Brad Johnson can’t get it to him. Maybe returning kicks will be his forte’.


TE

Jason Whitten, Zach Hilton, Kellen Winslow, Ben Troupe Of all of these Whitten has the most potential to get out of this group. He’s consistently one of the top 5 Tight ends taken off the board, yet Parcells has repeatedly said that he will use Whitten and Fasano in group packages that will allow better room for the run game. Unless you get points for blocking, he’s not a valid option. People have called Hilton the “white Antonio Gates” - which isn’t a compliment because Gates is one ugly mofo. I’ve said all year that I didn’t think this guy would be a force in NO, and now rumors are speculating that he may not even make the roster. I just don’t see the TE as being very active in that system anyway. I’m still counting the days down to when Winslow has a skydiving accident, breaks every bone in his body and is out for the entire season. Then next year maybe everyone can stroke themselves while watching videos of his father and murmur in a trancelike voice “This is the year he uses his potential….” In speaking of breakout years, Ben “The Next Antonio Gates” Troupe is going to finally have his breakout season, cementing him on top of the TE chart - just like the past few years, right? I vote no.


SLEEPERS

QB

Rivers, Simms, Kitna, Campbell I think Rivers and Simms will both be great consistent QBs this year, and I think both of them could be had late and will make excellent backups with the potential to take over teams. Kitna will be a top 10 QB by the end of the year, write it down, take it to the bank, realize you wasted your time when you try and cash a note that says “Jon Kitna” on it. Regardless, he’s going to be a beast this year. Jason Campbell seems to me to have the inside track to a great job once Brunell goes down of gets benched. I don’t expect huge numbers for him, but I bet he could get the job done better than Brunell.


RB

Maroney, Lundy, Gore, Drew Maroney is this year’s Larry Johnson. Mark it down, and if the 6th-8th round comes around in your draft, nab him and laugh as the Dillon owner goes into tears because you just took the league. Just like Johnson provided teams last year with a great second half, I expect the EXACT SAME THING from Maroney. Wali Lundy turned out to be a great sleeper, and one I called a long time ago because I felt that DD’s health was in serious jeopardy. I think DD has played his last down of football, and I believe Kubiak will utilize Lundy in his system. The back was bred for this type of zone blocking scheme, and I honestly believe he’ll make people forget about not drafting Reggie Bush (well, Mario Williams sure as hell better be the next Julius Peppers for that to happen). Frank Gore is a great option, especially in ppr leagues and he can be had usually in the 5th-8th rounds. That’s incredible value. He’s sneaking up some draft charts, but I think with the job fully cemented in San Francisco, he can be a stud if he stays healthy. I had Greg Jones on here (who I predicted to have a breakout season, and then he gets his leg ripped off), so I’m gonna go ahead and replace him with Maurice Drew here. I know people are speculating that Toefield is the guy in Jacksonville, but I bet Drew will be the guy. Taylor’s annual injury should happen any day now, and I don’t think they drafted Drew in the second to be a kick returner (but hey, the Bears did just that with Devin Hester, so who knows)


WR

Cotchery, Reggie Brown, Michael Clayton, Eric Moulds From the depths of the sleeper basement comes Jerricho Cotchery, who I’ve made certain in each of my leagues to grab with the last pick or have room on my roster for. He will supplant Laverneous Coles as the #1 receiver by the end of the year, and although he wont put up stud numbers (because he’s a Jet), he will be serviceable with some high end potential. Reggie Brown is the Philly #1 and getting overlooked and falling on charts because of a somewhat questionable passing game there (I guess the loss of TO makes everyone forget just how much Philly REALLY passes), with Stallworth signing with the Eagles, he’ll take enough attention off of Brown for him to blossom. Michael Clayton finds himself in a really good position this year, playing beside Galloway (who had a career year) and a great running game. He’ll get plenty of looks. Eric Moulds in Houston is absolutely outstanding, and he’s technically the #1 on the team. I think Andre Johnson will end up with better numbers, but Moulds appears to be on the fast track for a very solid season, and he’s available after the 9th in most drafts.


TE

Alex Smith, Jeb Putzier, Tony Sheffler, Joe Klopenstein All of these guys have high end potential in offenses that will check down to the TE and could become consistent starters. Everyone of these guys will more than likely go undrafted, so the values they have are easily pluses. Of course, this is a “sleeper TE” list - so it’s not like you were expecting huge names here.


1 Player that I will target to be on my team:


QB Marc Bulger - If you do the statistics, and look back and average out the games he’s played in or made an appearance in (excluding games missed due to injury) and you do the same with other top QBs, Bulger is your fantasy #1 QB in games where he is healthy. That says a lot. He has nothing but talent around him, and plays a weak schedule against the pass. If he can stay healthy, he’s a top dog and can be gotten later in drafts. A Bulger/Kitna combination allows you not to sweat the QB position and load up on talent elsewhere.
RB Ronnie Brown - While you can’t really go “wrong” with any of the top 10 backs, assuming you don’t have a top 4 pick, I think Ronnie Brown is the best bet at RB. I see HUGE potential, and a very low downside. If he doesn’t live up to what I think he can do, he’s still an average back and still in the top 10. It seems win/win to me, but then again he’ll probably get arrested for smoking pot and move to India and he’ll tear this prediction apart ala Ricky Williams last year. *cry
Warrick Dunn - Since most teams start 2 RBs, I'll add another one. With Duckett being shipped out, I'm one of the few with the belief that Dunn immediatly becomes a top tier running back in redrafts. Sure he's small, but the guy has legs the size of a clydesdale, and his hamhocks are so formed that bodybuilders (i.e. Ronnie Coleman and myself) are jealous of. People look at his stats, see 180 pounds and like...5'2" and assume he's a midget. Well, he runs hard, and I think will get the goalline carries over Norwood this year (especially with Norwood's fumbling problem). He's a beast, through and through and doesn't have injuries and crazy stuff like that to worry about. He'll be a top tier back in a run-first system.
WR Roy Williams - He’s going to be a stud and one of the top WRs this year and you can get him late in the third to early/middle of the 5th or 6th. I don’t see any reason why EVERYONE shouldn’t target him and reach for him. If he’s there in the 4th, I grab him - no questions asked.
TE Randy McMichael - So I lost out on Gates, and decided to wait when everyone picked their Shockeys, Heaps, Gonzos, etc afterwards. That’s fine, because now I have Randy McMichael and he will be a bonified stud by the end of the year. This guy will be absolute butter for you throughout the season, and I’m not talking about the splenda shit. I’m talking Land-O-Lakes. Yes, Randy McMichael is the naked Indian carving a canoe that will take you to fantasy heaven.

Players I will avoid. These guys to me seem to come at too high a cost, or have bad juju written all over them. If I haven’t explained why I’m down on these guys before, I will now.
QB - Brooks, Brunell, Favre, Jets QBs (the situation there is just a disaster) RB - Julius Jones, Fred Taylor (He’s due for an injury any second now), Tatum Bell (He’ll get 10 carries or so a game, but wont have enough chance to potentially be big week in and out), Jets RB (See QB situation)
WR - Santana Moss, Deion Branch (holding out, seems serious about not caving in to the Patriots front office - and the office wont meet him in on it either. If he can get on the field, he’s a hell of a player - I just don’t see it happening), Chris Henry (I thought he was done, but I guess he gets another chance. But still, he’s one 15 year old away from getting the boot), Chad Johnson (I’d have to pay a second/third round for him, and that’s not gonna happen. He’s a good WR, but nowhere near the level of most guys you can get there. He’s the kind of guy whose popularity and off the field antics has caused his draft stock to rise)
TE - Kellen Winslow, Ben Troupe, Erron Kinney (another “Next Gates” prodigy), Vernon Davis for this year (in a dynasty he’s a great snag, but this year Eric Johnson will cut into his time and I think his ADP is a bit high in redrafts)

4 comments:

Lakeshark said...

Thank you, Gents! Last minute Fanball draft on Wed, so I'm grateful for your observations.

Now that Dayne signed with the Texans, please issue an essay regarding the mutual gravitational pull of fantasy football dark matter in space.

Cheers!

Anonymous said...

You are as bright as you are dreamy. Should you ever need someone to powder your loins before you strap on your fine leathers, I can be reached in the chatroom at Boybath.com. My ID is Randyrodd666.

Professor Ellis D Trails said...

somewhat obvious choices, not bad lamb. Although you are drunk in regards to cotchery. I agree with witten as you will see in my week one syllabus.

Greggs1 said...

This is hillarious.

"Julius Jones isn’t a BAD back, but he’s sharing time with Barber and I believe is more dwelled in a RBBC than anyone else out there. His potential and consistency are limited and the injury bug is always there as well - his production potential doesn’t justify his late 2nd/early 3rd ADP"

Bryan picked JJ with the 2nd pick in the 3rd round in our league. LMAO. Do as I say, not as I do...