Thursday, October 19, 2006

Professor Ellis D Trails Week 7 Syllabus


Welcome my faithful students to another week of insights and insults from your dependable Professor. The world of fantasy football is such a fickle beast. One minute you are down and cursing your opponent and players on your roster, only to be thrust into elation upon a gamebreak that shows one of those cursed players scoring a touchdown.

I was content going into Monday night’s game accepting defeat as I was up by one point with Brian Urlacher, while my opponent had the scoring machine that is Robbie Gould and stud Adrian Wilson. I sure that many of you shared my views of the game that Chicago would be destroying them by halftime and not only giving Gould ample opportunity to score on field goals and extra points, but provide many chances for tackles and other defensive stats for Wilson. In other words, I was toast.

The game went on as you all witnessed, and his (deadliftboy of fanball lore) team was scoring, while Urlacher was not doing much but getting some assisted tackles. I was down at one point by as many as ten points in the second half and only continued to watch because I am an insane football fan that can’t watch enough. Urlacher got a couple of tackles and pulled me closer, but I didn’t think much of it. In our league, Tackles are worth 1 and assists are 1 pt for ever 2. Sacks/Ints/FF/FR are each worth 3. With about 5 minutes to go in the game, I had pulled within 5 points, as the Cardinals kept running right into Urlacher. Then the improbable begins.

First, Edge runs right into the center of the line and Urlacher is seemingly nowhere near him, then you see big # 54 come out of the shadows and use his guns to strip the ball from Edge, which shortened the lead to two. Charles Tillman picks up the ball and runs it in, thus only allowing Gould an extra point instead of a FG. (That fumble TD by Tillman won fellow LR mate Jimed’s game for him – LR sticks together) The lead was back at three. Arizona gets the ball back and proceeds to run two plays right into #54 and an inconsequential incomplete pass. The lead is down to 1 and the Bears are about to get the ball back. I know at this point Deadlift is hoping for a sustained drive so Adrian Wilson can get a couple of tackles and Gould will get a FG try. I am nearly screaming at my high-definition TV for Hester to return the kick for a TD. HESTER RETURNS IT AND I BLEW A GASKET. I knew that Gould would get the point, but I also knew that now the Cardinals would get the ball back and Urlacher had already begun to take the game into his hands. His lead was two. Urlacher, almost anticlimactically, gets two tackles right away to tie the game. The game winner came on a first down pass to Obafemi Ayanbadejo. As Obafemi sprinted towards the sideline to stop the clock, Urlacher catches up to him in time to shove him out of bounds and award me with my point that I needed to put me over the top. As Arizona lines up for the chance to take the lead, all I could wish for was a miss, as any make would force Chicago to pass and give Wilson another shot to tie or even take the lead. Well, as that kick sailed wide, as smile large as life appeared on my face as I exclaimed, “Kneel Down, I WIN!!!”

Fantasy football is about the joy of victory, but just as much it is about the agony of defeat. For without one, you do not have the other. The ultimate yin/yang. I know there are many that play fantasy football for the monetary reward, but I play, not only for the money, but for the pure enjoyment and fun that comes with winning and losing.

Sunday, October 22, 2006 1:00pm

CAR @ CIN
Carolina is on a roll after their fourth straight win last week against the Ravens and Cincy not only lost to Tampa, they also lost Levi Jones for a month. Carolina takes on their third AFC team in a row and looks to stay unbeaten against them. Cincy is losing players like Ahmad Carroll in the secondary

Jake Delhomme - Of course having Steve Smith helps Jake, his passer rating has been above 90 in each of the games that Smitty has been back. He seems to like the road games, he averages 273 yards passing on the road compared to 175 yards passing at home. His two lowest yardage games this season came when Smith was playing.
DeShaun Foster - After two straight hundred yards games, he ran into a wall known as the Ravens. Expect him to get back on track against one of the poorer run defenses in the league
Steve Smith - He is sixth in the league in yardage and has missed two games. Any questions?

Carson Palmer - The Bengals are getting creamed in the trenches, First the lose Braham at Center and now Levi, ouch. Carolina’s defense gave up some stats against Kyle Boller, so that has to make you feel better, but don’t be surprised if he has a down game.
Rudi Johnson - He only has one hundred yard game this season and with the injuries on the line, he won’t get one this week either.
CJ - I figured that after teams realized that if they shut down CJ, then Housh and crew will beat them, I guess teams would rather have Housh beat them.
Housh - This is the first week that I will rank Housh higher than CJ.


DET @ NYJ
John Kitna is definitely putting up some good numbers in Mike Martz’ offense and beat a pretty good defense in the Bills last week for their first win. This week they take on a Jets team that was able to hold off Miami. The Jets seem to beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams, guess that means a win this week.

John Kitna - Kitna is really starting to connect with Roy Williams, He just needs to curtail the turnovers, 10 in 6 games.
Kevin Jones - Can it be that he is finally living up to the hype that has followed him last year and this one. He finally broke out a hundred yard game last week and has played well sans the Viking game. The Jets couldn’t stop a running back with cement shoes.

Chad Pennington - What team has given up the most passing TD’s in the league? Yes, the Lions.
Leon Washington - The rook has look impressive in his limited chances, but I don’t see Mangini giving him the lead role just yet. Detroit has played the run well, but the loss of Rodgers could thin the line enough for Leon to get the edge and make some plays.
Coles - The NFL two leading receivers are playing in this game and Coles is one of them. My sleeper at WR is asleep no more.


GB @ MIA
The Pack are coming off their bye with a healthy Ahman and Favre coming to the aid of banned teammate Koren Robinson. Hey Brett, he is a lost cause. Miami, once the team considered to overtake New England, now trying to cope with cast off Joey Harrington at QB. Ouch!

Brett Favre - Miami starting CB Travis Daniels is still out, backup CB Andre' Goodman is doubtful with a bad shoulder, another backup CB Michael Lehan left the Jets game with a bad hamstring, and starting SS Traveres Tillman is reportedly about to lose his job. Bombs away.
Ahman GreenAhman Green should have come back next week. Miami is only giving up 3 yrds/carry this year.
Donald Driver - If those ribs are healthy, then he is the #1 guy on the team. The week before the bye, he was barely running off the line and Jennings was the target. If the ribs still hurt him, then Jennings is your man.

Joey Harrington - He will showcase his late game heroics in Miami, oh wait, no he won't he sucks.
Ronnie Brown - Don't give up on Ronnie, He is in line to have a nice week against the Pack.
Chris Chambers - Even with Harrington at QB, Chambers will have a good week. The packers secondary gives up huge plays.


JAX @ HOU
Jacksonville comes off their bye to face a Houston defense that is getting worse by the week. Houston played a half of football before sending out a D-II team in the 2nd Half.

Byron Leftwich - Do you really need me to tell you to start anyone against the Texans?
Fred Taylor - See Leftwich, also, DT Seth Payne is out for the year. So, a weak defense got weaker.
Reggie Williams - Still don’t think that the Jags have a #1, Reggie has only 3 less catches than Wilford and Jones combined.

Andre Johnson - I would only recommend one Texan for this game as they should be getting smoked and Carr seems to have tunnel vision for him worse than Jake ever did for Smith. Now that Moulds is there to take heat off of him, he will always get his catches and Houston is perpetually trailing late.


NE @ BUF
Ho-Hum, New England is 4-1 and leading their division by two games. They come off the bye to take on the Bills who almost beat them in New England if not for a 4th quarter safety. The Bills let the Lions get their first win against them and are not heading in the right direction

Tom Brady - He is not the same consistent fantasy scorer that we have all become accustomed to, but he wins and that is all BB cares about.
Laurence Maroney - He is obviously the more explosive of the two backs in New England and is the feature guy for all intents and purposes.
Ben Watson - He is one guy that I had pegged for a big season that has let me down. With Graham still ailing, he should see a lot of red zone looks.

JP Loseman - New England has only given up 4 TD passes all season and The New England game earlier in the year is the only game Loseman did not throw a TD pass.
Willis McGahee - He has only one good game this year. That game against the Jets is the only game he gets over 4 yards a carry. He has only 1 TD. If you take out that one game against the pitiful Jets run defense, he is averaging 3.4 yds per carry. How much longer until everyone sees that he is not very good.
Lee Evans After a slow start, he has come on strong and is due for some TD’s


PHI @ TB
The EAGLES came back strong last week only to fall short in the end. I will say that I underestimated the Saints and Drew Brees abilities to lead a team. Tampa was another first time winner against the Bengals last week and the Rookie gets to face a defense that leads the league in sacks.

Donavon McNabb - He will be over 2000 yards and we are not even half way through the season. Damn.
Bryan Westbrook - Tampa is giving up almost 150 yards a game on the ground, but that number is skewed by the 300+ they gave up to the Falcons. They stopped Cincy and should stop the Birds attempts. The Eagles are going to need to pass to set up the run in this one.
Reggie Brown - If last week’s game didn’t show you that Reggie Brown is the real deal than you are just ignorant.

Bruce Gradkowski - Dave Attel look-alike gets to see what a real pass rush is like in the NFL.
Cadillac Williams - Teams have been able to run on the Eagles by taking advantage of the pursuit. Caddy could go off if the EAGLES are not ready.


PIT @ ATL
I have always said that when good teams are backed up against a wall and need a win, will get that win more often than not and Pitt showed that last week against the Chiefs. Atlanta once again showed that if you force Vick to beat you with his arm, he cannot.

Ben Roethlisbeger - You know your season is not going well when you get a perfect QB rating in one game and it raises your Rating to just above 60. He threw his two first TD passes after starting the season with 7 interceptions. This week he gets to face another stingy pass defense and on the road. Sit him if you have a better matchup.
Willie Parker - The only way to win this game for the Steelers is to control the ball. The Giants proved that the Falcons can be run on and Fast Willie can run on anybody.
Najeh Davenport - I picked him up in two of my leagues and he paid immediate dividends. If you are in a TD heavy league and he is available, grab him.

Ron Mexico - He can run like a gazelle, but the only thing he can pass is Herpes
Warrick Dunn - Dunn owners finally got a TD from their back on the longest TD run in Falcon history. I have always said that If Dunn scored TD’s, he would be a top 5 fantasy pick.
Atlanta ReceiversThe few passes that happen to enter into the area of a Falcon receiver get dropped anyway, so they are useless in fantasy terms.


SD @ KC
LT put on a show in San Francisco and should continue the onslaught in Kansas City. Huard didn’t have a chance in Pittsburgh considering the urgency that the Steelers needed a win. KC’s defense has been up and down this year, but overall has played better than recent history.

Philip Rivers - He was able to take advantage of Pitt’s smaller DB’s at home and sliced through an extremely permeable Niner defense, but these two corners should be his biggest test to date, especially being on the road.
LT - LT is going to have to one of his games for the Chargers to dominate, otherwise this one will be a low scoring close game.
Antonio Gates - He may only have 255 yards receiving on the year, but half have come in the last two games.

Damon Huard - He thought Pitt had a tough defense.
LJ - He is struggling. Only 3.4 yds per carry against the 49ers is struggling. 3 TD’s for a guy that many thought would get 25+ is struggling. 31 carries for 62 yards in his last two games tells me that he won’t be able to beat SD. NBYS, but I would consider sitting him this week, if I had a guy on the bench with a great matchup.

Sunday, October 22, 2006 4:05pm


DEN @ CLE
Denver has the best defense that no one is paying attention to. The offense is mediocre and that is saved by the play of the defense. They should have destroyed the Raiders, even with the rain and let them stay in it far too long. Cleveland is another team that has a mediocre offense with a defense that plays well at times. The differences between the two are Cleveland’s offense is even more inconsistent and the defense is as well. If they could put together a full game, they could beat most teams. The funny thing is that Denver’s entire defensive line is ex-browns.

Jake Plummer - When I watch Denver play this year, it reminds me of the Bears from last year. Offense sputters and defense plays very well and the team wins, ugly at times.
Tatem Bell - Mike Bell has had 5 carries in two games. We have a #1 back.
Rod Smith - Rod Smith’s #’s are low not because of the new addition on the other side, but rather because of the drop-off from the QB position.

Charlie FryeBeing in this division is tough for a young QB, with all the strong defenses. He is still young and learning and will struggle. I highly doubt that anyone is starting him, unless you are in dire straits.
Rueben Droughns - *Cricket* *Cricket*
Kellen Winslow - I wonder how the loss of his brother will affect him for this week’s game. My thoughts and prayers are with you Kellen.

Sunday, October 22, 2006 4:15


ARI @ OAK
Thank you Arizona for helping me win my game in the Manglerz league. At least Lienart looks like the real deal. If Arizona cannot beat Oakland, then they should just give up. Oakland is another week closer to 0-16 and Brady Quinn. I’ve got it, Al Davis wants Quinn bad enough to tank the season. That is the only reason that I can think that they would hire Art Shell and a Bed & Breakfast Manager to run the offense.

Matt Lienart - If he can pass like that against Chicago, then he should set some records against Oakland
Edge - You cannot say that they are not feeding him the ball. Oakland has had more rushing attempts against them than any other team.
Anquan Boldin - So much for Lienart targeting Johnson the most, Boldin had a lofty 19 looks last week and should have another big week here.

Andrew Walter - Brooks is another week away. Does it really matter?
Randy Moss - He showed some signs of life last week, time to take another week off.


MIN @ SEA
Minnesota sat at home last week and watched their deficit in their division grow thanks to the improbable comeback by the Bears and need to win to keep pace with them. Seattle bounced back from their drubbing by the bears with a win at St Louis in a wild finish.

Chester Taylor - I don’t expect much from him this game. Seattle has handled the run game except for the Bears game, but I don’t expect the Vikings to dominate like the Bears did.

Matt Hasselback - If you go by Matt’s games this year, then this will be a bad game. He started the season with a good game, then played poorly against the Cardinals. He had 5 TD’s the next week against the Giants and then followed it up with 2 Int’s against the Bears. Last week he has his best game of the season with 3TD’s and no Int’s. So, this should be a bad one if he follows suit.
Mo Mo - The Vikings have had a stellar run defense this year and I don’t see much room for Mo or Mack
Deion Branch - He gets into the starting lineup and did something he never did in a Patriot’s uniform, score 2 TD’s in one game. Don’t expect too much after this game though as he has had over 7 catches only 3 times in his career and once was a huge game in 2002.

WAS @ IND
Let me get this straight, Washington beats Jacksonville and then two weeks later loses to the Titans. How much longer until Campbell is playing. The ‘Skins need this game and have to play the Colts in Indy, doesn’t look good. I said earlier that good teams win when backed in a corner and the ‘Skins are just not a good “team.” Indy is 5-0, but just as easily could be 2-3 or worse. The run defense is worse than the Niners and I don’t think trading for McFarland is going to help that much.

Mark Brunell - If you want to know what the definition of aging vet hanging on too long, watch him play.
Clinton Portis - He should shred that defense that gave up 100 yards to the Texan’s offense.
Chris Cooley - I knew he would score last week, I cut him in one of my leagues.
Three Blind Mice - See how they run.

Peyton Manning - He got a bye week to prepare for a team that got beat by the Titans. He is my #1 QB for the week.
Harrison and Wayne - Both these guys will get plenty of opportunities to score.


Monday, October 23, 2006 8:30pm


NYG @ DAL
The Giants are coming off a bye to play on Monday night against a division rival whose coach is more famous for coaching them then the current team he is heading. Dallas got off to a slow start against Houston, but TO got to dance on the star and all was calm in Dallas for a week or so.

Eli Manning - How long into his career will the excuse of being young be able to be used for explanation of his mistakes?
Tiki Barber - Ok, I will never pick Tiki for Bust of the Week again. He does only have one TD so far though.
Jeremey Shockey - He finally shut his mouth and played last week. When he plays like that, he is a must start. Too bad, he doesn’t do that too often.

The Statue - The Giants pass defense is getting better and if the Statue gets in trouble like he did against Philly, then it could be a long night for him.
Julius Jones - He gets all the yards and Barber scores the TD.
Marion Barber - Only worth a start in TD only leagues.
TO - It is hard to get the plays when you are the second favorite target and your QB is on his ass.



















Top 10 QB’s for Week 7
1. Peyton Manning
2. Donavon McNabb
3. Carson Palmer
4. Jake Delhomme
5. Byron Leftwich
6. Brett Favre
7. Eli Manning
8. Matt Lienart
9. Matt Hasselback
10. Tom Brady


















Top 10 RB’s for Week 7
1. Clinton Portis
2. LaDainian Tomlinson
3. Ronnie Brown
4. Brian Westbrook
5. Kevin Jones
6. Fred Taylor
7. Tiki Barber
8. Edgerrin James
9. Larry Johnson
10. Chester Taylor



















Top 10 WR’s for Week 7
1. Steve Smith
2. Marvin Harrison
3. Anquan Boldin
4. Roy Williams
5. Chris Chambers
6. TJ Houshmandzadeh
7. Randy Moss
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Darrell Jackson
10. Reggie Williams

Sleeper of the Week – Tatum Bell
Tatum Bell gets to play the Browns this week. As long as he is the starter, I would start Tatum Bell almost every week. The Browns, although in some close games, only win has come at the hands of the lowly Raiders, and they will struggle to stop the Broncos offense. Denver will look to establish the run early in the game and get Bell plenty of work. Bell should get a ton of touches ad should easily get more than 100 yards and score his second touchdown in as many weeks.

Bust of the Week – Willis McGahee
A staple of bust of the week from last year, Willis goes against a New England defense that is playing better each week. They are only yielding 85 yards on the ground per game and Willis is known to disappear against good run defenses. Look for other options and sit the guy that has only scored once this season.

I know my luck will change at some point during this season, but I am enjoying pretty good success this year and look forward to each week like it is the first of the season. If you are in a bind and need to make a difficult decision, Always go with your gut and don’t look back.

Don’t forget, if you have any WDIS questions, direct them to our very own fantasy prognosticator Lord Helmut or any of the other LR staff at:

asklockeroom@gmail.com

2 comments:

lakeshark said...

Good Schtuff as usual, Dr.!

Professor Ellis D Trails said...

thank's lake, always appreciated