Thursday, October 12, 2006

Professor Ellis D Trails Week 6 Syllabus

Week 6 is unique as it marks the first time ever to have six teams on a bye. Cleveland, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota and New England are all out of action, so the likes of Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, Brett Favre, Ahman Green, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Byron Leftwich, Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor, Tom Brady and Laurence Maroney will have to be reserved for less-heralded options. I know this will cause you to strain over the WW this week, but you may be able to pick up some scraps that are left on the list of undesirables. Before I gallivant into this weeks games, I wanted to offer up a couple of those scraps to assist you in bye week hell. I will not be covering these players in their respective matchups as that would just be stupid and redundant.

Bruce Gradkowski (Silent K as I like to call him) - He played well and stood tall in the pocket against a Saints team that is on fire to start the year and against an inconsistent Bengal’s defense, he could provide some punch to your lineup. Be careful though as the Bengals are a good intercepting team.

Drew Bledsoe - His pitiful performance against the EAGLES could have made some owners mad enough to drop him and if that is the case, do not be hesitant to grab him and play him against the wretched Houston pass defense.

Michael Turner - Turner has not just been a clean up or part time back this season. He certainly has been ample opportunity to play in games and if the LT owner has left him in the FA pool (I highly doubt it) Grab him and plug him for your bye week against a 49er team surrendering a ton of yards on the ground.

Travis Henry - I would tend to avoid the Tennessee running game altogether, but Henry had a real nice game against a pretty good defense in Indy and that should buy him the bulk of the carries this week.

Roscoe Parrish - He has been a little inconsistent this season, but this week Buffalo is playing one of the worst pass defenses in the league and it could be a good day for all of the Bills receivers.

Eric Parker - I don’t know if you noticed, but in the Philip Rivers breakout game last week, he targeted Parker on many a play. I would be surprised if he was not available in your league and is a sneaky play this week against the 49ers.

Malcolm Floyd I know another SD guy? He is a big, fast guy with soft hands. Rivers liked to look for this guy in the red zone. Now that he is throwing more than 10 passes a game, he makes a nice bye week pickup.

Jeremey Stevans - He will make his return this week and provide a much better option that the scrubs that have been playing at TE so far this year. He was available in my league for a bye week fill and he could be in yours.

Alex Smith - He has been dropped more than acid at a Grateful Dead concert. Grab him if you have Watson or Winslow this week. TE’s can be a rookie QB’s best friend.

Sunday October 15th, 2006 1:00pm

The Bills were riding a high until they ran into the proverbial wall that is Chicago. The Lions have seemed to get their offense going, too bad the defense cannot stop the pass.

J.P. Loseman - The kid has fight and has come along way to gain some semblance of respect from me. He will have some good numbers in the Dome this weekend.
Willis McGahee - With an actual passing attack, this perennial bust is playing well this year. He is currently third in the league in rushing yards on pace for over 1400 yards. Problems, only 1 TD and still averaging less than 4 yards per carry.
Lee Evans - After an extremely slow start, he has turned it on in the last couple of games. Look for that to continue.

John Kitna - He will have Mike Furrey and Az-Hakim as his starting WRs this week. What exactly does Mike Williams have to do to get some playing time? How about actually giving a damn.
Kevin Jones - Just when you thought that KJ had found his groove against the Packers and the Rams, he gives a terrible performance against the Vikings once again causing fantasy owners grief. The only thing to do with him is to look at the matchup and sit him against the stronger run defenses. Buffalo is giving about 113 and a TD per game.

If you thought the Panthers were done, think again. They are back and could go on a roll. Baltimore played like hell on Monday night against a much underrated Denver defense. Morgan is out for the year which should help Jamal and he needs all the help he can get.

Jake Delhomme - For the first time in his career, I have noticed that he doesn’t have tunnel vision. He is actually spreading the ball to more than one receiver. Ok, so it’s only two, but that’s better.
Keyshawn Johnson - He has been targeted about nine times a game and some owners were worried that once smith came back that would diminish. Well it hasn’t and Key makes a fine #2 or #3 on your squad.
Steve Smith - Since he has been back, he hasn’t missed a beat and the only thing that detracts from his value is Jake’s love of Me-Shawn’s height in the red zone.

Steve McNair - He is no longer Air McNair. He is Zephyr McNair. The guy just isn’t the same. He won’t lose a game like Boller will, but you can forget about getting any 300 yard games anymore.
Jamal Lewis - What happened to this guy? The way he runs, it seems like he would never get 2000 yards. He has as much power as a man in a committed relationship.
Todd Heap - if the Ravens want to have a successful offense, then they have to play to their strengths and I know that Mason and Clayton are quality receivers to an extent, but McNair just isn’t the same passer anymore. Targeting Heap more often would open up other aspects of that offense. Sometimes things can go unnoticed during winning streaks, but it’s the losses that tell you the most about your team.

Cincy is coming off their buy to face an angry and underachieving Buccs squad. Tampa almost went into New Orleans and won in a place where Atlanta got smoked. What does that tell you about the parity of this league. This is one of those sneaky games where a team without a win could get one at home if the visitors are not careful.

Carson Palmer - Teams have tried to shut him down by taking Chad out the gameplan. However, they didn’t realize that the Bengals have an extremely talented (albeit criminal at times) WR Corp. Start him every week.
Rudi Johnson - Throw out the game against the Steelers, he wasn’t needed and he has been a beast. Just a side note, Tampa is giving up 163 yards per game rushing. That is still over a hundred if you take out the Atlanta shellacking.
CJ - Now that teams have to give respect tot Housh and Co., CJ will start to make you remember why you drafted him.

Cadillac Williams - If Bruce Almighty can continue his poised play and Tampa can get a little more healthy on the line, you might be able to snag Caddy from the owner in your league at a very low price. Don’t get too excited though as his end of season schedule is filled with run stoppers. Cincy is giving up nearly 150 yards and 2 TD’s on the ground per game so far.
Joey Galloway - Joey has been a monster on the road so far this season and has done nothing at home. The Bengals pass defense has been pretty good only giving up 3 pass TD’s all year. I would sit him this week for better options.

Houston comes off the bye to take on the Cowboys in Dallas. The battle for Texas. Dallas lost a game in Philly that started to expose the problems that TO can bring to a team. It was reported that after the loss, TO stormed into the LOCKERROOM, and screamed, “Why the fuck did you bring me here, why am I here?” I give it until week 8 and Parcell’s top explodes. He may even punch out Jerry Jones for doing this to his team.

David Carr - The #1 rated passer. This should tell you how much the QB rating means. I will give it to him for his completion percentage, but he is only averaging a little over 200 yards a game and has been sacked 15 times.
Andre Johnson - He is the number one receiver in many fantasy leagues, at least by average. I would continue to play him, Houston will be trailing in most games and Andre is actually getting open with another viable receiver playing next to him.

Julius Jones - Julius is starting to be the player that he was supposed to be last year. I know it just kills you to see Marion Barber still stealing carries. BP seems to me to be trying to hard to find something that works rather than going out there and putting it on teams like he used to as a coach.
Jason Witten - He needs to be more involved, but also seems to be dropping a lot more balls than I remember.
TO - You wanted a big game from him, this week should be it. He needs it or my week 8 prediction could be much shorter.

Which Eli will show up this week? The indecisive and wild Eli or the poised and sharp Eli. The truth is no one ever knows. Atlanta was also on a bye last week and would like to continue their winning ways on the legs of the offense. There is certainly no arm there.

Eli Manning - I am quickly learning that Eli doesn’t like pressure. If you can jar him early, then it takes him awhile to get a rhythm back (usually 3 quarters). If he can get into a groove early, then he can roll you. Abraham and Kearney will do their best to smack him around.
Tiki - Tiki needs to stop doing commercials. He is really getting on my nerves. Atlanta stops the run about as good as they run the ball and have only given up 4 rushing first downs a game along with under 70 yards per game and 1 rushing TD all year, that was a WR run by Devery Henderson.
Jeremy Shockey - He might be a bigger crybaby than TO. Hey Shockey, how’s about playing some football you malcontent.
Plaxico Burress - He will always have good and bad games. Now you can see why Pittsburgh made him expendable. He just doesn’t show up all the time.

Michael Vick - IF he could learn to throw the ball, then Atlanta would almost be unstoppable. He can’t and won’t. They will still win games with their defense and rushing game, but they will never win the big one. I have conceded the fact that Vick does and will get fantasy stats, but I just don’t like the guy.
Warrick Dunn - Keep playing him while he is healthy. His workload is up from last year and it’s only a matter of time before he tweaks something.
Atlanta Receivers - When your QB averages about 130 yards per game passing, then there is nobody that you should be starting at receiver from this team sans Alge.

Philly shut TO up last week, at least during the game and came away with a needed victory in the NFC East. New Orleans needed a special teams score to beat the winless Buccaneers. Will the real New Orleans Saints please stand up? The Saints are that team that comes out of the gate on fire and begins to fizzle out around now.

Donovan McNabb - 1600 yards, 11 TD’s, 1 Int, 3 Rushing TD’s (two more than Vick) – Nufced. (Nufced is a trademark of PissahCorp, INC. and all of its holdings)
Westboogie - Gets little credit for his toughness, but plays with pain and plays well. New Orleans run defense has been beaten to the tune of 125 yards a game and teams just really cannot gameplan effectively to stop him.
Reggie Brown - The EAGLES finally have hit on a WR in the draft. It took them long enough. With Stallworth doubtful ( I know he would love to play his old mates) Brown will be the benefactor of one of the best throw deep balls in the game today.

Drew Brees - I still say that he is playing over his head and will look like a different QB with the pressure he’ll face this week.
Reggie Bush - He is only a good play in PPR leagues as he is Brees’ LT in New Orleans. He is on pace for 108 receptions. He cannot rush it up the middle in the NFL and it is much harder to get those corners as well.
Deuce McAlister - This is the guy teams should be worried about. One thing Reggie has done is open up holes for Deuce and he is positively taking advantage of that.
Joe Horn - Attention everyone, there was a Joe Horn sighting last week. With teams now able to gameplan for this Colston kid, expect Horn’s numbers to go up a bit. You can probably get him pretty cheap in a trade.

Seattle needed a bye last week but it is still likely without their star for this divisional matchup against the Rams. Don’t you just love how fast teams jump off the bandwagon when a team gets smacked. St Louis got a lucky break against the Packers when Favre fumbled away the chance at the tie. They need to play better this week to win against the ‘Hawks.

Matt Hasselback - I will never draft this guy and it is because he puts up good games against good teams and bad games against bad teams. You just never know what you are going to get with this guy. He should have a good game this week, but that means nothing when dealing with this guy.
Maurice Morris - Don’t sleep on this guy. I have said before that he could start for other teams in the NFL and you can be sure that Haslett knows that too.
Darrell Jackson - This game will be a high scoring game and D-Jax should see plenty of opportunities to score.

Marc Bulger - He has taken to Linehan's offense. This is easily the longest he has gone without throwing an interception. Prior to last season, St Louis has owned Seattle at home and this one should be another high scoring affair.
Steven Jackson - Seattle has played pretty well against the home.
Tory Holt - The best WR in the game should have no problems making it 5 or even 6 TD's this week.

The Vince Young era is off to a great start and would have been even better if they pulled off the improbable upset against the vaunted Colts last week. One thing it did was expose the middle of the Colt’s defense as soft. Washington looked like a basement team against the Giants. Tennessee continues to make their claims on the top pick in next year’s draft this week at Washington.

Vince Young - Imagine the size of a young Culpepper with the legs of Vick. I fear that he has the passing ability of Vick as well. Only time will tell.
Drew Bennett - This was supposed to be a breakout year for him. Now his team runs the option half the time, LOL.

Mark Brunell - The Brunell soap opera continues in Washington. One weekend he is slinging and gunning it and the next he can’t complete a sentence let alone a pass.
Clinton Portis - He will be running all over the Titans. It should be almost comical.
Three Blind Mice - See how they run.

Sunday October 15th, 2006 4:15pm

KC has played well without their leader and took it to Arizona and San Fran. Now they get to face a Pittsburgh team that is in a must win situation after losing at San Diego.

Damon Huard - He has been playing great ball with nearly 500 yards in two games. Pittsburgh is not a cake team like the ones he has been facing. Welcome to reality Damon.
LJ - He was beetlejuiced last week at Arizona and missed the rest of the game. At that point he was one of the top RB’s for the week. He won’t miss any time and is a definite start as usual.

Big Ben - He is struggling right now and playing against a defense that is getting better each week is not a recipe for a turnaround. However this is a must win and at home. I wouldn’t expect any big numbers, but he will play better.
Willie Parker - FWP needs to turn on the jets to help the Steelers turn their season around
Najeh Davenport - He will provide more than people are expecting right now. Cowher has already said that his playing time will increase and fills that Bus role nicely. He will also help FWP by being the power to his finesse.
Hines Ward - Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has not lived up to billing thus far, thanks to the play of his QB. Once Ben settles down and stops trying to force passes, things will open up for Hines.

Joey Harrington looked better than C-Pep recently but still threw two crucial interceptions to give a short field to the under explosive Patriots last week. The Jets were starting to believe that they were actually a good team until they were completely shut down by Jacksonville who have been monsters at home so far.

Joey Harrington - I remember Joey Harrington road games. I needed a good laugh.
Ronnie Brown - A projected top 5 running back is currently sitting at 24th just one yard ahead of Michael Turner, a backup. The good news is that The Jets are giving up 150 yards rushing per game and a league high 11 rushing TD’s. Start him this week.
Chris Chambers - Do you remember all the WR’s Joey had in Detroit that he couldn’t complete passes to, and his line is worse here with all the injuries.

Chad Pennington - Miami still has a good defense and Pennington in his career averages about 10 fantasy points per game against the 'phins, that seems like a reasonable score for him this week
Leon Washington - No one knows when or if C-Mart is going to come back and right now Leon has the reigns in New York. If he can run for a hundred in a loss at Jax, then he is worth a start for me.
Laveranues Coles - He was complaining that he was on the bench too much last week and could have played more. He was leading the league in receptions earlier in the year and he should get back on track this week.
Brad Smith - Who is this guy? He plays WR/QB/RB. He is the reason why Coles was sat at times last week. He could eat into everyone’s playing time as Mangini seems to be falling in love this guy.

Marty finally let Rivers show what he can do with his arm against a tough defense and he showed Marty that he can throw. SD looks tough to beat. SF is heading in the opposite direction. Although it seemed as though Gore has gotten a grip on his fumbling, literally.

Philip Rivers - If he puts up solid numbers against Pitt, what do you think he can do against the Niners DB’s. Yeah, start him with glee.
LT - He has been giving up more carries to Turner than in years past. The reason is simple. If you have owned LT in the past few seasons, then you know about his poor play during the fantasy playoffs. Well this year, Marty is reducing the load where he can, so his horse is at full strength come stretch time and when you got a guy like Turner, it makes it so much easier.

Alex Smith - As good of a game he had last week, this one will be as bad as it could be. If you start him, expect to lose.
Frank Gore - The NFL’s leading rusher would be hard pressed to do well against the Number 1 defense in the league.

Sunday October 15th, 2006 8:15pm

I picked Oakland to win against San Fran, if they couldn’t do that, they definitely are not beating Denver. Nevertheless, in today’s NFL, anything can happen and especially in divisional games. Denver proved to me that Plummer is still their guy and that defense is fast.

Oakland QB- Whether it’s Brooks, Walter, or Tuimyassisaopen, it won’t matter. They will be handled
Lamont Jordan - Justin Fargas has looked good running the ball.
Mr. Complainer - Hey Randy, why don’t you go over the middle? Nah, didn’t think so.

Jake Plummer - He finally righted the ship at the end of the Monday night game. He will continue his resurgence against the Faiders.
Tatem Bell - Why did you draft Mike Bell so high? Did Quentin Griffen teach you nothing? Tatem will pass the century mark and score twice this weekend.
WR’s - I think that I will stay away from the Denver receivers from now on. Walker is the most solid play of any of them, but you never know when Rod is going to pop in there and get a TD. Also, Plummer seems to be throwing to Kircus a lot. Be-ware.

Monday October 16th, 2006 8:30pm

Chicago has the defense and offense to go undefeated. I still don’t feel like they have been truly tested sans Seattle. Like I stated earlier, while you are winning you don’t learn as much about your team than when you are losing and this team needs to have some hardship or could slip up in the end. Arizona, Hmmm, they are missing their top wideout, their o-line is terrible, they have a rookie QB and they are facing the best defense in the league. Yeah, good luck with that.

Rex Grossman - The guy has gone beyond everyone’s expectations. He will continue the onslaught this week.
Thomas Jones - Keep doubting him and he’ll keep running down team’s throats.
Bernard Berrian - Sorry Moose, Bernard is the main man in this high powered offense.

Matt Lienart - Welcome to the NFL Matt. Matt, meet the turf, turf, meet Matt.
Bryant Johnson - I was going to put him in the bye week pickups, but c’mon he is playing the bears.
Edge - You probably have to start him because he was a first round draft pick, but you know what to expect.

Top 10 QB’s for Week 6
1. Donavon McNabb
2. Matt Hasselback
3. Drew Bledsoe
4. Eli Manning
5. Marc Bulger
6. Michael Vick
7. Carson Palmer
8. Philip Rivers
9. Bruce Gradkowski
10. Rex Grossman

Top 10 RB’s for Week 6
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Clinton Portis
3. Tatem Bell
4. Frank Gore
5. Ronnie Brown
6. Larry Johnson
7. Steven Jackson
8. Willis McGahee
9. Julius Jones
10. Brian Westbrook

Top 10 WR’s for Week 6
1. Torry Holt
2. Terrell Owens
3. Lee Evans
4. Chad Johnson
5. Andre Johnson
6. Darrell Jackson
7. Bernard Berrian
8. Terry Glenn
9. Javon Walker
10. Marques Colston

Sleeper of the WeekMichael Turner
I know that I already put him in the bye week fill-ins, but this one could get ugly fast and if that is the case, expect Turner to see a lot of action. With the porous run defense, he should still be able to get a ton of yards and a score.

Bust of the WeekTiki Barber
I know that I said that Tiki would be the bust last week and I was wrong, this week I am convinced that Atlanta’s vaunted run defense will hold him in check and force young Eli to beat them with his arm.

Another week down and closer to mid season we are. I would just like to remind everyone to use the save button whenever you can as while I was putting together this week’s syllabus, the power went out and I realized that I had not utilized the save feature in some time. Hence, I was forced to redo this entire composition. Just a word to the wise. I know that you have all come hear for advice to lead you to a fantasy championship and all that dough, but the best piece of advice I could give you is Always go with your gut and don’t look back.

......Professor Ellis D Trails

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