The phenomena that cracks me up more than anything in fantasy sports is the certainty of August. Generally speaking, very few people have a clue what they’ll be thinking, feeling, doing four minutes from now and, for most of us, life raises far more question than it even pretends to answer. Yet, within the first week of NFL training camps, when teams themselves have yet to work out the conduct of their plan for the upcoming season, thousands are already certain about this & that involving the fantasy value of players or positions. Some years, it’s about who the first pick absolutely must be, in others it’s that the most talented rookie RB CANNOT be worth as much as the worn-out trusty vet. This year, with little argument about the top 3 except their order, the specific values of the 2nd tier was spelled out pick-by-pick as though the order were safeguarded by the immutable laws of physics. Were one to have asserted six weeks ago that Rudi had more value than Clintoris, Westboogie than Tiki, Fast Willie than Lamont or Andre, and not Chad, to be the best Johnson at WR one would have been treated as though he believed ’76 Pintos to be the hottest car, Paris to be the world’s finest singer, Springer its best dancer or, heaven forbid, Madeleine Albright to be a hotter Secretary of State than Condy.
Since I did such a poor job in my preseason evals, I thought I’d look back upon how much wisdom is left to August by October. I have taken the FAMEBALL draft as my sample, it being the finest assemblage of drafting ability in recorded history. I’ve used the scoring in that Yahoo league as well & have included missed games in the avgs. Don’t like the anomalies in just a four week sample but, what the hey.
QB: Peyton was the only passer taken before 4.10 and is avging a roundworthy 23 pts/g. The 4 QBs taken in rds 4-5 are avging 21, the 5 in rds 6-8 avg 15, the 4 9-10 rders 6. There were 7 QBs taken 10+ or not at avging more than 15 pts/g.
RB: LT2 & LJ have supported there consensus 1-2 status by being tied for the league lead I avging 19 pts for each of their teams games played. Missed time has SA’s avg at 8. The other 8 backs taken in rd 1 avg 12 pts/g. The 7 2nd rd RBs avg 12 too, the 5 in the 3rd 9, the 5 in 4-5 avgd 12 (reminded us not to let trusty vets drop too far), the 6-8 avgd 7 and the 9-10s 4, with 5 backs 10+ avging more than that.
WR: No 1st round WRs in this draft. The Big Halfdozen of rd 2 total 54 pts (9 pt avg), the Little Halfdozen of rd 3 had 50 (avg 8). The 8 wrs in rds 4-5 have avgd 11 pts, once again flipping the order like a pancake (as it does virtually every year). The rd 6sters avg 5 pts though (reminding us TO let trusty vets drop down at this position), with the speculations of rds 7-10 avging 7 pts.
Nowhere in this mix did I see any immutable cutoff lines, empirical certainties or even golden rules. That fact that not a lot was proved by this quick survey proves that the only thing that can hurt you is the rut of consensus expectation locking you into taking players you don’t like or not taking players you do. As I’ve said before, the player you should always pick is the one you like the most who won’t be available next time you do. And have fun.
Let’s have a look at the Pintos & Parises of Week 5:
INDY 14 TENN 13
Dayum! In our Absolutely Impossible pool at my local saloon, I could have taken President Bush giving a cold recitation of all the Hamlet soliloquies. Or Nicole Richie unbuckling her pants at the table so she’d have room for more. But NOOOO! I gotta pick the Colts being held scoreless for a half at home by the Tennessee freakin’ Tuxedos! Dayum!!....It was wise for the Titans to go primarily to the shotgun for VYoung’s greater comfort, but stupid not to put him back under center when they had a lead to milk....Watching P-Man send the punt team back to the sidelines in this’n has me wondering if his increasing say over events in Indy has summin to do with the declining efficacy of that offense.
NYG 16 WASH 3
Man, the DC eleven are more schizoid than the girls on Bachelor....Here’s a contrast for you – Brunell’s total ydage in the last three Wash/NYG contests, 286; Tiki’s, 479. Barber was thiiiis close to breaking about ten long plays. Coulda had 300....Still haven’t seen Eli throw a mid-range pass on the money. If the Giants can keep the mix of runs/bombs they had today, it won’t matter.
NO 24 TB 21
I turned to my pal as we looked forward to the Saints’ final possession to proclaim that it was now-or-never for Reggie B and, before I could get to the last syllable he had the ball in the end zone. Had a huge hole but, still....I’ve seen more impressive debuts than Gradkowski’s but none more composed – a polar opposite to Simms’ safety dances....Deuce is looking totally back and, if Payton is smart, he’ll reduce Bush to specialist for the rest of ‘06
NE 20 MIA 10
The harvest moon itself is less reliable than the suckness of my Pal Joey – the Pats started coasting in the 2nd Q once they realized how little they were up against....Good thing NE is going to the bye. Game film of their inefficiency against a tight cover-2 today by the Phin D will show their next opponent just how far from previous glory the NE O is. They just don’t have WRs to run the routes called for in this offense. Mia bunched the run and kept it close doing so.
MINN 26 DET 17
How could it be that a winless team stops playing after building a nice lead? Cuz their coaching staff relaxed-then-panicked before the players did. When will teams learn that settling for 3-&-outs is never an option. At least Detroit has the Tigers....In the two games since I proclaimed Childress my early candidate for Coach of the Year, the Vikes have excelled in little more than sloppiness. Penalties & turnovers would have buried them had not Kitna’s Pee Wee backup impression saved them.
CHI 40 BUF 7
Ouch!
CAR 20 CLE 12
Summin wrong with this Cat team. At home they are, dominating the Browns on both lines, RB gets 100, access to their WRs at will, spirited defensive play and yet Cleveland still had a shot to tie late. Somebody ‘splain that to me....Nobody needs the bye more’n Frye.
KC 23 AZ 20
Well, the Leinart Era sure got off to a promising start. Fortunately, though the Cards were able to regroup, pull together and grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. I mean, when you stop LJ’s ground attack only to convert him into an All-Pro receiver, you’re doing that special something extra that losing streaks are made of....Huard threatened to come back to earth, but Az just couldn’t let him....Matt gets good rookie scores except in his pocket awareness. If he don’t get a nose for oncoming DEs, he’s gonna fumble as much as his mentor....Bryant Johnson looked better than his fancier cohorts, but dropped a sure TD when they could have put it away.
PHIL 38 DAL 24
NOW you can kill yourself, TO. You’ve always been a hyper-talented piece of shit, but at least you useta be a gamer....A different Eagle has led the team in receiving yards each week. When a UNM Lobo (didnt them Baskett catches look great?!) even Pinkie and Wrong Said Fred would have a chance on this funass team...Even though Drewbie had one of his old-man games (3 ints, 3 fumbles), the Dallas D kept them in it til it just got ridiculous....I’m having the best time watching these Iggles.
JAX 41 NYJ 0
How many of y’all benched the Jax D after that showing in DC last week. Oops....Even though this Jets performance gets a mulligan from me, Coach Mangina got them off to a horrible start with another bonehead move. He started Brad Smith at RB & stayed with him just long enough to spot the Jags 2 TDs. Still trying to figure out the upside on that one....Getting real tired trying to figure out which Fred is gonna show up.
STL 23 GB 20
Dog of the day – Stloo is as unqualified to be 4-1 as Green Bye is to be 1-4....Much as I like me some Maroney & Jerious....Jennings is my ROY so far. The Packers would be the Raiders without him....Herron has a nice burst. Even though Morency didn’t deserve the benching for his 1st turnover of the year, they mighta backed into summin there.
SF 34 OAK 20
Al Davis must be spinning in his casket – can’t remember seeing a more heartless team....Even though I like him, the waiver claims that are sure to come in on Battle will be a waste of a button push....Huggy Jr. showed some stuff but you just know he’ll spit the bit if they ever come to count on him....Walter grew some this game, even if it was hard to tell amid his gruesome team.
Listen, guys, Fanball’s Lord Helmet will be answering WDIS questions for us once a week starting Wednesday. For now, put any questions in the comment section of this column – we’ll have an email addy for them up in the next coupla days. Play hard -
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