Thursday, November 30, 2006

Professor Ellis D Trails Week 13 Syllabus

We have arrived at the two most critical weeks in terms of fantasy importance. Playoffs are almost upon us and we are either a win away from being in or being eliminated. I myself have either made it into or are very close to clinching playoffs in all of my money leagues. I play in one league where it is best record wins. I have a 4 game lead with five to go. Most of you come to class to learn about the nuances that gives you the gumption necessary to decide on whom to go with on Sunday of Monday and now Thursday. Tony Romo is the new flavor and is ranked in the top 5 among the leagues QB’s already in some places (ESPN) where obvious observations are pawned on us as some kind of meaningful analysis. As soon as he tanks in a game, people will start calling him a bust. Ahh, the fickle fate of fantasy football. I heard that Romo is dating Jessica Simpson and that his people called her people saying he had a crush, here's how it really happened.

Tony Romo is sitting around in his living room and he sees that Direct TV commercial with Jessica Simpson. He then calls his agent.

Tony (to his agent): Man I want to bang that Jessica Simpson
Agent: Yeah that would be sweet.
Tony: She is single now right?
Agent: Oh Yeahh
Tony: Damn she is hot, tell you what let’s send her people a message that I have a crush on here.
Agent: yeah, that might actually work.
Tony: I know, damn I can’t wait to tap that.
Agent: Done deal

Aside from that we have convened today to gaze upon this week’s games with an even more keen interest than in previous weeks due to the importance stated above. Without further a due:

Thursday November 30th, 2006

Baltimore is rolling under Billick and Lewis is a reliable back again bank it. Cincinnati was able win two games in a row on the road and look to cut into Baltimore’s 3 game lead Thursday Night.

Steve McNair - The Ravens can clinch the division with a win this week and McNair needs an efficient game for this to happen. The Ravens beat the Bengals at home by getting off to a quick start and barely was able to keep the Bengals at bay.
J-Lew - With 5 of his 6 TD’s for the season coming in the last 4 games. Lewis is back and you should be confident in starting him against a defense that has only given up fewer rushing TD’s than Indy and the Jets.

Carson Palmer - Carson has 9 TD’s and 2 Int’s in his last three games and always plays well against Baltimore. The Bengals need this game and I don’t see Carson disappointing.
Rudi Johnson - After not getting 20 carries in 3 games, he has gotten over 20 in his last two, both wins. Baltimore has been lights out vs. the run and I wouldn’t expect much more than 50-60 yards and a possible score.
Chad Johnson - People think that his recent surge in stats is due to him playing better, well he may, but teams are finally starting to give respect to the other receivers. Now as long as Henry can stay off the police blogger, his stats should continue to shine.

Sunday December 3rd, 2006

Arizona has two wins and neither of them is on the road. St Louis, after starting the season 4-1 has dropped 5 of 6. If they want to compete, they have to run the table. Pace’s absence is huge in more ways than one.

Matt Leinart - He is still going through some growing pains dealing with a good offense that is being held back by poor play up front. St Louis has played surprisingly well against the pass and we all know Arizona cannot run the ball.
Boldin and Fitz - As long as Arizona continues to trail in games, these two will thrive and are must starts.

Marc Bulger - Ever since Pace has been out, Bulger has had little or no time to throw the ball, hurting himself as well as Tory Holt.
Steven Jackson - It is good to see that Jackson is still racking up the fantasy points with Pace out.

Atlanta’s only two wins in the last seven have come by a total of 5 points and have lost by two touchdowns 5 times. Maybe now people will start realizing that Vick will never win in this league. Washington is an enigma that is fit for this parity of a league we call the NFL.

Michael Vick - He may not be able to win games, but he can score fantasy points.
Warrick Dunn - He is on pace for the most carries in his career. He has gone over 60 yards twice since week seven but never more than 73. Hello wall.

Jason Campbell - People are so riled up over Romo that they are glossing over Campbell who lost a close one on the road against Tampa and then wins against a Carolina team that had won 6 of 8. He has 4 TD’s and only 1 Int in 2 games. If he has a good game this week, maybe ESPN will rank him fifth only 4 slots behind the best QB in the league Tony Romo.
Three Blind Mice - See how they run.
Chris Cooley - He has seen his looks increase with Campbell in and looks to revisit his heroics of last year’s playoffs.

Detroit stinks and wins an occasional home game. This week they go one the road against a Patriot team that is getting ready for the time of the year they save their best efforts for.

Roy Williams - He is the only guy worth starting on the road for the Lions, especially against the Patriots.

Tom Brady - Since his debacle against the Colts, he has been on point. Now that we are in December, your confidence in him should be growing.
Laurence Maroney - He is the star at RB in New England, too bad there is this other guy that gets in the way of it sometimes.
Ben Watson - He is finally becoming the receiver we all wanted since the beginning of the season with all 3 of his TD’s coming in the last five weeks and has averaged almost 14 pts per contest since the bye week.

Indy had fun rolling over the Eagles last week on Sunday night and now get to play a feisty Tennessee team that came back to upset the falling Giants. Indy better watch out or they could get caught. However, with a win, they wrap up the division

Peyton Manning - He hasn’t really had a Peyton big week in about 3 weeks. Look out.
Joe Addai - I have been calling this guys bust out game for weeks now and I should have known that it would have been against the Eagles. The Titans couldn’t stop a RB if they were paid to, err uh.., they do get paid. It sure doesn’t look that way.
Marvin Harrison - Here is another one from the weird file. In the Colt’s even games this year Marvin has averaged 7 catches for 104 yards and 4 total TD’s, but in the Colt’s odd games he is averaging 4 catches for 50.5 yards and 1 TD all season. This is the 12TH game for the Colts. If you are a trend guy, Start Marvin Harrison this week. (as if you would bench him). He also still has more catches this year than Reggie Wayne.

Travis Henry - He is easily the number one guy in Tennessee and if there is any week to play him, it would be this week against a very poor Indy run defense. I would just hope that Tennessee doesn’t get behind too fast.

The Chiefs are hanging on to the top WC spot barely and would like to keep that spot by taking out a Cleveland team that was embarrassed by the Bengals.

Larry Johnson - He has scored in every game since week 2 and put up 150+ on Denver. Enjoy having against a defense that has given up the second most 20+ yard plays on the ground.

Kellen Winslow - The leading receiver among TE’s has finally arrived. Now if he could get a QB that could throw it to him more.

Minnesota stops the run as good as how bad they stop the pass. It is amazing how good they play in one aspect of the game to have the same players play so bad in another area. Chicago wants to knock Minnesota farther down and come to just one game away from clinching home field in the playoffs.

Chester Taylor - He played fairly well when these two teams first met, but don’t expect much.

Rex Grossman - Up and down Rex should be back up again this week.
Bernard Berrian - I see two or three deep ones caught against this poor secondary.

The Jets are holding on for life during a season in which no one gave them any chance. They are currently tied with the Bengals and Jaguars one game behind the Broncos and Chiefs. Dare I say the Jets have a chance? At 4-7, it is spoiler time for Green Bay and with each passing week we shall here more about the impending retirement or lack thereof referring, of course, to the Legend Brett Faaaavvreeee.

Chad Pennington - Comeback player of the year.
Laveranues Coles - He is sure glad that Penny came back and didn’t get hurt again. Do you remember all those people who said that Santana Moss was way better than Coles after last year and the Redskins got the better deal? Those people don’t exist anymore. LOL

Brett Favre - I know Brett should retire because On Monday night I saw a different Favre than I can remember. One that was shaking his head and throwing his arms up in disbelief. Some of them throws looked terrible and just thrown up for grabs. He’ll be back though; it is all about the record now.
Ahman Green - He still can play against teams that can’t stop the run and the Jets fit that category to a tee.
Donald Driver - two yards behind Steve Smith for 5th in the league in yards. There are people that say he is not a viable #1 WR, which lets me snag him as a two every year.

San Diego is really setting themselves apart from the pack and now get Merriman back for the stretch run. They are so fun to watch and Rivers is playing like a Vet. Buffalo has played well recently, but it may be too little too late.

Philip Rivers - He plays well, but you don’t really need him when you have LT.
LT - Buffalo gives up nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. I see another 3 TD game.

JP Loseman - I’ll be the first to admit JP has far exceeded my expectations for this season, but Merriman is back and you know he is hungry for some QB meat.
Willis McGahee - Hey, a good run defense, time for Willis to run and hide.
Lee Evans - He wishes he could play Houston every week.

San Fran has won 3 of 4 and New Orleans has lost 2 of 3. Buck the trend here and watch Brees lead the Saints to victory.

Alex Smith - New Orleans has not given up very many yards through the air, but don’t let that fool you. Only Washington and Tampa have given up more scores through
Frank Gore - How bad is Kevan Barlow? Gore is definitely a trooper; he has fought through a number of injuries this year and missed minimal game time. He is carrying them and with a few upsets could surprise everyone. They are only one game out of the struggling Giants and surging Panthers.

Drew Brees - He has 500 more yards passing than Peyton Manning and I bet that he was not a first round pick.
Devery Henderson - If Colston plays, then this guy is just a flavor and flavors rarely produce in consecutive weeks. If Colston doesn’t play, he makes a good go as Horn is still nursing a hammy.

Jacksonville can feel their game slipping from them. They lose to Houston and then beat the Giants. Their only road win this year came at Philly, not exactly a juggernaut. Miami is undefeated since the bye and need to win out to even think about having a shot at the playoffs. Which teams will show up this week?

David Garrard - Miami stops the pass almost as well as the Jaguars do and Garrard has been struggling lately.
Taylor and Drew - The Phins play well against the run especially at home and this game may come down to a defensive score.

Joey Harrington - Harrington had his best game of the season on Thanksgiving against the Lions and now gets to play a real defense. Interception time. LOL
Sammy Morris - If you are starting Morris, that means you are having injury problems. Don’t be mad when he gets you about 50 yards and that’s it.
Marty Booker - He has been a hot pickup this week and my question is WHY?

Does anyone even care about this game? Does any team have anyone starting on their team in this game besides Andre Johnson, who btw, leads the league in receptions by 20? Moulds was a godsend to this kid’s career.

Matchup of the Week. The Cowboys are on fire and TO is quiet. Oops, I spoke to soon. TO criticized the team for cutting Mike Vanderjagt. A decision that was made by BP himself. Guess someone got tired of Romo stealing the spotlight. Eli is playing like the lost Manning brother and looks downright terrible as the head coach and players seem to have a rocky relationship at best. To stay with the way things have gone this year, Eli has his best game of the year and Romo tanks in New York.

Tony Romo - He has played extremely well in his first few games of his young career, mostly against scrub teams. I would beware of this game as it spells huge letdown for everybody on the Romo bus.
TO - All that crap and he is second in the league in TD receptions. Whatever you say about him, he gets the job done.

Eli Manning - Now that everyone has anointed him bust, he will come out this week and smash them Cowboys.
Tiki Barber - He will be fired up himself to stick it to Coughlin. He will drive it down so Jacobs can stick it in.
Plaxico Burress - He isn’t even the biggest crybaby on this team. (Shockey)

I know teams should never tank, but Tampa has few options. Right now they sit at 5th pick in the draft. They still have Seattle, Chicago and even Atlanta on their schedule. The best they could do is win out and finish .500. The only thing that accomplishes another mid first round guess player. Or, they could lose out and be fighting for a top spot. Maybe it comes down to whether Gradkowksi can win. If he wins, then they go after a player and if he loses they might be going after Quinn. One thing they need is some stability on the Line. Pitt is the most disappointing team this season. I just don’t think that a guy that came in and won like 90% of his games in his first two seasons can turn out this bad. Someone should tell Romo owners to beware. Shit play can come at any time.

Bruce Gradkowski - Is it me or does this guy look like Dave Attell? He just looks old to me. I know he isn’t, but he just looks like an old guy.
Caddy - Before you lose all hope on him, I know he only has two 100 yard games, but he does have 3 near 100 yard games including last week against Dallas where he had 73yards on 17 carries. That does however mark the 8th time in 11 games in which Caddy had gotten fewer than 20 carries. His yardage in the games in which he received 20+ carries are – 84 vs. Philly, 111 vs. NO & 122 vs. WAS. John really needs to get a line and give him the ball. That’s how you win road games in the NFL.

Ben Rosvcxoiiowejashiuehrufhweuhrfeherger - I wonder how many Pittsburgh fans suffered in Fantasy because of false hopes in this shell of a QB?
Willie Parker - He had his TD streak snapped last weekend against a fierce Raven defense that seems to be playing possessed lately. Tampa’s run defense has given up a few big plays, but is better against the run than the stats show.
Hines Ward - I was ready to say some stuff about him in the beginning of the season about him holding out and not being worth it, but he has been the man for most of this season and is 8th in the league TD’s, in a relatively low scoring year for WR’s in which Darrell Jackson is the leader thru 11 games with 9 TD’s, with 6 himself. That being said, obviously his surgery on his knee will keep him out this week, but he hopes to be back next week. I say with the season over, IR him and let him heal.

Seattle’s injuries have put them in a precarious place, although as good as they could have thought, given some of the play by the replacements. They are comfortable in the west, thanks to the Rams complete collapse, and looking to gear up for the playoffs. In contrast, Denver has the exact same record as Seattle, but instead of enjoying a 2 game lead, they are 2 games out and hanging on to the last playoff spot. AFC still has the NFC’s number.

Matt Hass - He looked better in the second half on Monday night, but that was after the snow stopped and he could see the field. At that point it wasn’t even a game.
SA - He is back and I don’t care if they give him the ball 40 times every game, that means more yards for me.
Darrell Jackson - This guy has Seneca Wallace as his QB for four games and is still leading the league in TD receptions.

Jay Cutler - He came in on his day off to get ready for this week’s game. You know Seattle will blitz. He should be shaky in the beginning. You know Denver’s defense is going to keep it close, but Cutler to Walker could be the next big hookup in the league.
Turf Toe Bell - Tatem has always played well in Denver and if he truly is healthy*** See bottom then he could help take pressure off of Cutler.
Javon Walker - It really all depends on how long it takes Cutler to settle in. You can’t really sit him though.

Monday December 4th, 2006

Two teams going in opposite directions. One winning and getting better and one losing games and hope. Carolina would love to have a road win especially with two crucial road games at the end of the season against division foes. If Philly is going to do anything it starts with this game, if they don’t they can kiss this season good-bye. I now consider Donavon McNabb injury prone. 3 completely different season ending surgeries.

Jake Dehomme - I don’t see much out of Jake. They should just do what every team does. The Eagles have given up 200 yards rushing in 3 of the last 4 games. In the other they gave up 143. The Colts scored over 40 and Peyton only threw 20 passes.
DeAngelo Williams - If the Panthers were smart they would just hand off the ball to him the entire game. DeShaun Foster is no good.
Steve Smith - When Delhomme does pass, this guy will be getting the ball.

Jeff Garcia - He was supposedly injured at the end of the last game and that is why Feeley came in. Yeah, ok, whatever. He should be pulled again after an injury when the Eagles are trailing by 20 and Peppers has his 3 rd sack and it isn’t even halftime.
Brian Westbrook - He is still reliable especially in PPR leagues. He has gotten over 20 carries for three games in a row and became the first Eagle to have three straight 100 yard rushing games since Wilbert Montgomery.

Top 10 QB’ for Week 13
1. Peyton Manning
2. Michael Vick
3. Drew Brees
4. Chad Pennington
5. Tom Brady
6. Carson Palmer
7. Marc Bulger
8. Brett Favre
9. Matt Leinart
10. Rex Grossman

Top 10 RB’s for Week 13
1. LT
2. LJ
3. S-Jax
4. Brian Westbrook
5. Frank Gore
6. Joe Addai
7. Ahman Green
8. Jamal Lewis
9. Travis Henry
10. Tiki Barber

Top Ten WR’s for Week 13
1. Laveranues Coles
2. Donald Driver
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Marvin Harrison
5. Steve Smith
6. Chad Johnson
7. Tory Holt
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Marques Colston (if he plays)
10. Javon Walker

Now on a side note, I know you know but Joe Thiesmann is a moron, that whole thing about how it takes one quarter for every game missed “incite” was anything but. He makes want to chew on tacks and put them into my eyes to ease the pain he causes my brain. Also, the only thing worse than the way Bryant Gumbel describes a football game are those AWFUL, celebrity/sports player sit in. I thought Mike Tirico was going to ask Jeff Gordon what kind of motor oil he uses. Seriously, has that guy ever conducted any sort of an interview and. The only saving grace is Tony K. He is pretty terrible as a color guy, but he great as a guy that sticks it to Thiesmann and calls him out when he says something that is completely backwards. That and that he always talks about fantasy football.

Random Joe Theismann Quote

“It’s hard to believe, but [Peyton] Manning wouldn’t be nearly as great a quarterback without James in the backfield taking pressure off him and giving him options.”

I absolutely cannot stand that guy. Good Luck on all your decisive games this weekend and now, more so than ever, Always go with your gut and don’t look back.

…………………..Professor Ellis D Trails

***HA HA HA, You actually looked. Tatem Bell Sucks, he will never be healthy. Go ahead start him. HA HA HA

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