Professor Ellis D Trails Week 11 Syllabus

Professor Ellis D Trails Week 11 Syllabus

Your Professor is back again this week for all your fantasy prognostications. After last week, I now know one thing for certain, that football is about as predictable as an episode of Lost. We are gearing up for the playoff run in reality and fantasy. The race is wide open in the NFL this year and it seems to be more wide open with each passing year. Most of the leagues trade deadlines have passed and now begins the race for the championship. On to this week’s games as it’s crunch time and I know you are here for the information that will bring you one step closer to your goal.

Sunday November 18, 2006

TEN @ PHI
Tennessee was killing the Ravens before they choked last week. Philly got back in the winning ways and ended both Portis and Brunell’s seasons, one from their play and one because of a broken hand.

Vince Young - The Eagles have the right defense to stop mobile QB’s.
Travis Henry - If the Titans stay committed to the run, he will have some room to roam.

D-Mac - Like you need any more incentive than the Titan’s pass defense to play McNabb this week
Westy - He is getting reps in practice and will get his normal 18-20 in PPR leagues.
Reggie Brown - Where have you been Reggie? He has very few catches in the past few games. He is still young and will turn it around with Stallworth back in the lineup.
Donte Stallworth - He has the ability and QB to score deep every game.

ATL @ BAL
Vick came back to earth as I knew he would. After 3 games and throwing 7 TD’s, people were giving Vick the MVP award and with two stinkers against Cleveland and Detroit, he is lucky to be playing the position. Baltimore once again wins a close one in the end.

Vick - Will Vick turn it around this week? Not Likely.
Dunn - He hasn’t gone over 100 yards since week 6.

McNair - Atlanta’s defense is hurting, but it still isn’t as bad as Tennessee. Average numbers at best for him this week.
Jamal Lewis - I am sick of supporting this has been
Derrick Mason - I said that since Billick was calling the plays, Mason’s #’ would increase. He has had averaged 5 catches a game in the last three and scored his first TD of the season.

BUF @ HOU
Buffalo came close to knocking off the Colts last weekend, but the offense could only muster FG’s which was their downfall. Houston has played better recently, but always finds a way to not win.

JP Losman - He has his worst games on the road where he averages 130 yards passing and has 4 of his 6 Int’s.
Lee Evans - In something you may not expect, Evans actually has better games on the road even with Loseman’s struggles. He posts his two highest catch totals on the road this year and one of his TD’s. Also, 3 of his 5 best games this season have come on the road with only two really poor games in 5, these being the first two games of the season.

CHI @ NYJ
Chicago look mediocre until the second half of last week’s game against the Giants and now get to play their second week in a row at the Meadowlands. The Jets are coming off a great win at New England last week and with an upset by Green Bay this week would share first place with a win.

Rex Grossman - Last week’s game was the first multiple TD game and it started out bad until the second half injuries took their toll on the Giants D. Grossman isn’t his best on the road where he has 8 of his 11 Int’s and at least one in every road game.
Thomas Jones - Grossman doesn’t play well on the road for the most part and the Jets run defense is terrible. He is the key to the Bears success this week.

Chad Pennington - He is a finalist for comeback player of the year with Ahman Green, no doubt. However, he hasn’t had a 300 yard game since week 2 and hasn’t had a 200 yard game since week 4, all the while throwing 4TD’s and 7 Int’s in his last 5.
Laveranues Coles - Outside of that great performance against Miami, he hasn’t done much since week 4 either.

CIN @ NO
The Bengals played like shit in the second half on defense against the Chargers and deserved to lose. Drew Brees is putting up MVP #’s and then they give away a game to Willie Parker and the Steelers.

Carson Palmer - I hope all you that benched Carson Palmer last week realized why you don’t do that.
Rudi Johnson - Rudi has now scored in three straight games against BAL, ATL & SD, all teams that allow less than one TD a game rushing. New Orleans gives up about 130 yds/game on the ground.
Chad Johnson - He finally got off the schnide in a big way last week. I was like save some for the rest of the year Chad, but I guess he was just trying to make up for lost time.

Drew Brees - He has 5 300 yard games and three in a row. He has 10 TD passes in 4 games and should use his accuracy to exploit a defense that was torn apart by his replacement in San Diego.
Reggie Bush - He scored his first TD from scrimmage last week. Woo freaking Hoo. He is still only averaging 2.8 yards per carry.
Marques Colston - League leader in yards and tied for third in receptions as well as leading in TD’s. Not bad for a rookie and must start on your team.

MIN @ MIA
Minnesota’s offense is terrible. Richardson is hurting and so is Hutchinson. They better start scoring some points. Miami has now won two in a row for the first time all season. Their defense is playing better and better and is playing well enough to overcome any mistakes made by Joey.

Brad Johnson - Brad Johnson is the real reason that Minnesota is struggling. He makes poor decisions leading the way to 5 TD’s versus 9 Int’s (1 TD and 5 Int’s in the last 3 games against the likes of SF and GB).
Chester Taylor - Only Larry Johnson and Edgerrin James have more carries than Chester and while he has a good amount of yardage, only Julius Jones and Jamal Lewis have fewer TD’s than Chester in the top 15 in regards to players with the most carries in the league.

Ronnie Brown - Minnesota’s run defense is still #1 and the only team giving up less than 3 yards per carry. It doesn’t look good for Ronnie this week.

NE @ GB
New England could not overcome mistakes and the weather in a loss to the Jets and will come out firing against a poor passing defender that is the Packers. Green Bay took out Minnesota on the road which has been no easy task for them in recent memory. They have won 3 out 4 games since their bye and are playing pretty good football on both sides of the ball right now.

Tom Brady - He was obviously frustrated last week and should bounce back nicely.
Reche Caldwell - He is about as close as New England has as a go to guy receiver for Brady with 3 games out of the last 4 with at least 5 catches and two total TD’s.

Brett Favre - GB’s line is playing much better than last year. Brett has thrown a fourth on the Int’s from last year and been sacked only 11 times all season.
Donald Driver - He continues his reign as one of the most underrated receivers in fantasy. He is not for me though.

OAK @ KC
Oakland is struggling again and now it will be Brooks turn again in the game of the new old QB’s as Green returns from la la land and he can thank a poor performance by Huard against Miami for that.

Brooks - He sucked before the injury and he will suck now.
Lamont “I went from dud to stud to dud in 2+ years” Jordan – His name says it all.
Randy Moss - It really doesn’t matter who the QB is, when your coach won’t throw it deep.

Trent Green - Welcome back against the # 3 pass defense. This game belongs to LJ.
LJ - 7 Total TD’s in 4 games against Oakland in his career. Start him happily.

PIT @ CLE
Pittsburgh is 3-6 and hanging on for dear life. They pretty much need to win out, and with a coach like Cowher, it can be done. Cleveland has played better than their record would indicate, but they are 3-6 and their remaining schedule is rough.

Willie Parker - He is on fire. He has scored in every game sans one since week 2. Also, he has had at least 20 carries in every game since week 2 except for the games against San Diego & Denver.
Hines Ward - He has been on fire himself since week 5 scoring 5 TD’s and averaging over 100 yards a game.

STL @ CAR
Twice this season St Louis loses to Seattle on last second Field Goals. Ouch! Carolina is playing up and down this season and need this game as four of their final 6 games are on the road.

Marc Bulger - Carolina has played well on defense and losing pace is going to hurt Bulger more than he knows. Last week was the first game since week one that Bulger did not throw a TD. For my sake, as well as many of yours, let’s hope that doesn’t continue.
Steven Jackson - Owners might not like the fact that SJ hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since week 2, if not for his surge in receiving yards and scoring in 4 straight games.
Tory Holt - After having a TD in five straight games, he hasn’t scored in three. This could only mean one thing. He is due for a Torry “Big Game” Holt type of game.

Jake Delhomme - St Louis has given up 14 TD’s passing and 10 in the last 6 games. He is definitely worth a start at home.
Steve Smith - He is almost undefendable.

WAS @ TBB
Washington will head into Tampa after being smashed by the EAGLES with Jason Campbell and Ladell Betts. Tampa is terrible. If not for a miracle FG they would have one win. They will win this one though.

Jason Campbell - He gets to make his first pass in the league against a once formidable opponent. They are still adequate, but with only 12 sacks all year (fewest in the league) they are not pressuring anyone.
Ladell Betts - Lets see, a QB in his first game playing on the road. Can anyone say stacking the box?
Three Blind Mice - See how they run.

Bruce Gradkowski - Washington’s pass defense is really bad, really bad. He is still young and makes some bad decisions, but if you are in a bind, he has a nice matchup at home.
Cadillac Williams - He hasn’t hit 50 yards in 3 games and has one TD all year. His only value right now is as a keeper for next year.


Sunday, November 19, 4:05pm

DET @ ARI
There is always one thing that is constant in the wacky world that is the NFL and that is that the Lions do not win on the road. It is obvious that Matt is still adjusting to the NFL, but it equally as obvious that once he does, he will be good.

John Kitna - Arizona plays much better defense at home. Kitna is a good start with Roy Williams out there, but don’t expect any great numbers.
Kevin Jones - KJ already has a career high in TD’s and is on pace to have career highs in yards and carries. Arizona has given up some running yards like 137 to Oakland on the road, but they also held LJ to 2.3 yds/carry at home. Just something to chew on.
Roy Williams - The way he is playing this year in Martz’ offense makes him a must start for your team.

Matt Leinart - You can’t get much better being a rook than facing the Lions at home. Only two teams have fewer interceptions than the Lions. The Skins and the Saints.
Edge - Maybe next year. Look at it this way; you might be able to snag him as low as the third round in some moron leagues next year. I do like him this week. See below. (Sleeper of the Week)
Anquan Boldin & Larry Fitzgerald - Leinart is playing well at times, but he isn’t slinging up numbers like Warner did. For the rest of the season, when one of the dynamic duo does well the other will suffer.

SEA @ SF
Seattle plucked a victory from St Louis just as they had just 4 weeks prior. San Fran managed to win their second game in a row for the first time all season.

Matt Hasselback - He was favoring the knee a little during practice but seemed in good spirits and could play this weekend. Watch out if Hass does play, he has had some of his worst games there.
SA - Only the Jets and Bengals have given up more rushing TD’s than San Fran. Welcome back SA.
Darrell Jackson - The best, nay the only WR to ever produce from the Florida Gators continues to be the man in Seattle.

Frank Gore - He suffered a mild concussion against the Lions. I don’t see him missing this week’s game, but one big hit could knock him out.
Vernon Davis - Is there a hotter pick up in fantasy right now. It seems like every league I am in he was picked up this week. I don’t think he’ll return this week, maybe everyone is just getting ready to play the highest paid TE in the league.


Sunday, November 19, 2006 4:15pm

IND @ DAL
Indy remained undefeated with a close win against Buffalo holding them to FG’s on offense. Dallas is thriving with Romo at the helm. That can’t last. Losing Greg Ellis hurts.

Peyton Manning - Just watching him command an offense is special. I think about all of the little nuances that go through his head during each play. He is something special.
Joe Addai - He is the top back in Indy in my mind. Rhodes has gotten 21 carries in the last three weeks while Addai has gotten 48. You make the call.
Reggie Wayne & Marvin Harrison - Wayne has 6 TD’s in five games and Harrison has 4. Wayne has 30 receptions in the last five, while Harrison has 25. Start them both as if you needed me to tell you that.

Tony Romo - He played ok against the Panthers and well against the Cardinals and Redskins, whoop de do. This week he faces a real team and watch him crumble.
Julius Jones - I just don’t understand how BP uses this guy. After looking like a stud through week 6, he has been virtually nowhere in the last 4 games. It looks like Barber is taking more and more carries from him.
TO - After vowing to be a changed player in the second half, he goes and drops a ton of passes against the Cardinals. If they had lost that game, you can bet you would have heard more about it. If he is dropping passes against the Colts, you can be sure that it will cost his “team”

Sunday, November 19, 2006 8:15pm

SD @ DEN
The second Sunday night flex game features the best offense in the league vs. the leagues best defense scoring wise. Something has got to give in this battle for first place. The rematch is in 3 weeks. The Chargers are fresh off the shootout comeback in Cincy to take on the Bengals who squeaked by the Raiders for the second time this year.

Philip Rivers - You are welcome to those who listened to me about Rivers in the preseason. This one will be a tough game no matter how much experience you have as a starter.
LT - Denver’s run defense is stingy, but LT is a man on a mission this season,
Gates - Rivers is going to have to get Antonio involved early and often.

Jake Plummer - You know that Plummer watched plenty of game film of the Bengals first half torching the Charger defense. It won’t help him escape his own mediocrity.
Denver RB’s - I give up.
Javon Walker - Javon is definitely the #1 option in Denver now and has scored in three straight games. Start him against any defense.

Monday, November 20, 2006 8:30pm

NYG @ JAX
The Giants are hurting. Each week brings new injuries. The latest being Sam Madison allowing Grossman to torch their defense in the second half. It is good thing that they face a team that is having their own problems completing passes. Jacksonville was swept by Houston last week and that is inexcusable. Their defense plays better at home, but it won’t matter if their offense plays like they did against the Texans.

Eli Manning - I have always said it, Eli Manning is overrated. He hasn’t thrown for 200 yards since playing an awful Washington team while throwing only 6 TD’s with 6 Int’s in that span.
Tiki - The NFL’s leading rusher can’t buy a TD with Jacobs in there.
Giant’s WR - You know a team is hurting when they bring in guys like David Boston & Peter Warrick.

JAX RB’s - They really like to use Jones-Drew in a multitude of ways, but Taylor is one that gets the yards. Another dreaded RBBC, where Drew is the man for TD’s and Taylor will get you points in yardage heavy league.
JAX WR’s First it was Reggie Williams and Matt Jones, and then Wilford has a good game or two, now Jones was benched. That whole situation is a mess. Ya know, Leftwich has one bad game against the Texans and gets benched. Leftwich was made out to be the leader of that team. A guy who would play through pain to help them win games and lead them on the field and is not the starter now because of David Garrard, a guy who has one good game against the Titans. I have to blame Del Rio for this mess.

Top 10 QB’s for Week 11

1. Peyton Manning
2. Donavon McNabb
3. Carson Palmer
4. Drew Brees
5. Tom Brady
6. Mark Bulger
7. Seahawks QB
8. Jake Delhomme
9. Brett Favre
10. Matt Leinart

Top 10 RB’s for Week 11

1. Larry Johnson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. LT
4. Kevin Jones
5. Steven Jackson
6. Shaun Alexander
7. Thomas Jones
8. Tiki Barber
9. Edgerrin James
10. Rudi Johnson

Top 10 WR's for Week 11

1. Torry Holt
2. Marques Colston
3. Steve Smith
4. Marvin Harrison
5. TJ Houshmanzadeh
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Darryl Jackson
8. Marvin Harrison
9. Roy Williams
10. Terrell Owens


Bust of the Week – Ronnie Brown
First of all, he faces the best rush defense in the league. Add to that his groin injury and that spells benchtime for Ronnie.

Sleeper of the Week – Edgerrin James
As you all know Edge has been less than stellar this year. He is still getting a ton of carries and against a Lions defense hurt by injuries has given up nearly 200 yards per game over the last three. I see Edge get over the century mark for the first time all season and scoring as well.

You all come to my class to convince yourself and to reassure yourself of dilemmas and decisions that you have made for the betterment of your team. I ask you to look upon my syllabus with an open mind and a keen sense to use what you can to lead your team to victory. I give you the fuel and you use that to power your team to fantasy championship. Always go with your gut and don’t look back.

Professor Ellis D Trails