Forum of www.rockyssports.com - see you there!Professor Ellis D Trails Week 15 Syllabus
I have compiled some data from my main fantasy league. Standard scoring applies with 6 pt TD’s across the board and includes a PPR. To understand my madness, please see below. I clarify who you should take in the first round of your draft next year.
QB in the top 10
Drew Brees – 328pts
10 (games) of 13 (played) 15+ fantasy pts = 77% of games played
9 (games) of 13 (played) 25+ fantasy pts = 69% of games played
Peyton Manning – 308pts
12 of 13 15+ = 92%
4 of 13 25+ = 31%
Carson Palmer – 280pts
10 of 13 15+ = 77%
5 of 13 25+ = 38%
1 of 13 5 and under – 8 %
Mark Bulger – 270pts
8 of 13 15+ = 62%
4 of 13 25+ = 31%
Michael Vick – 263pts
11 of 13 15+ = 85%
3 of 13 25+ = 23%
Donavon McNabb – 250pts
8 of 9 15+ = 89%
6 of 9 25+ = 67%
Tom Brady – 243pts
11 of 13 15+ = 85%
2 of 13 25+ = 15%
Brett Favre – 236pts
8 of 13 15+ = 62%
4 of 13 25+ = 31%
3 games of 5 or under = 23%
Philip Rivers - 237pts
8 of 13 15+ = 62%
3 of 13 25+ = 23%
1 game under 5
Eli Manning – 233pts
8 of 13 15+ = 62%
4 of 13 25+ = 31%
94 of 117 = 80% post 15+ performances
40 of 117 = 34% post 25+ performances
Top to bottom +95
Average score of 265
RB in the top 10
LT – 416 pts
10 of 13 15+ = 77%
10 of 13 25+ = 77%
10 of 13 29+ = 77%
8 of 13 31+ = 62%
5 of 13 40+ = 38%
52 receptions
Steven Jackson – 298 pts
9 of 13 15+ = 69%
5 of 13 25+ = 38%
82 receptions
Larry Johnson – 292pts
11 of 13 15+ = 85%
4 of 13 25+ = 31%
33 receptions
Westbrook – 271pts
11 of 13 15+ = 85%
6 of 13 25+ = 46%
69 receptions
Frank Gore – 241pts
7 of 13 15+ = 54%
3 of 13 25+ = 23%
49 receptions
Willie Parker – 236pts
9 of 13 15+ = 69%
4 of 13 25+ = 31%
29 receptions
Reggie Bush – 216pts
6 of 13 15+ = 46%
3 of 13 25+ = 23%
80 receptions
Kevin Jones – 215pts
8 of 12 15+ = 67%
4 of 12 25+ = 33%
61 receptions
Tiki Barber – 212pts
9 of 13 15+ = 69%
1 of 13 25+ = 8%
47 receptions
Maurice Drew – 192pts
6 of 13 15+ = 46%
1 of 13 25+ = 8%
33 receptions
Chester Taylor – 191pts
8 of 12 15+ = 67%
1 of 12 25+ = 8%
85 of 130 65%
42 of 130 32%
225 top to bottom
240 average
WR in the top 10
Chad Johnson – 240pts
7 of 13 15+ = 54%
2 of 13 25+ = 15%
Tory Holt – 230pts
6 of 13 15+ = 46%
3 of 13 25+ = 23%
Reggie Wayne – 228pts
7 of 13 15+ = 54%
2 of 13 25+ = 15%
Andre Johnson – 222pts
9 of 13 15+ = 69%
3 of 13 25+ = 23%
Donald Driver – 221pts
7 of 13 15+ = 54%
3 of 13 25+ = 23%
Terrell Owens – 218pts
8 of 13 15+ = 62%
1 of 13 25+ = 8%
Darrell Jackson – 213pts
9 of 13 15+ = 69%
1 of 13 25+ = 8%
Steve Smith – 213pts
8 of 11 15+ = 73%
2 of 11 25+ = 18%
Marvin Harrison – 212pts
7 of 13 15+ = 54%
3 of 13 25+ = 23%
TJ Houshmanzadeh – 205pts
8 of 11 15+ = 73%
4 of 11 25+ = 36%
69 of 126 = 55% 15+
24 of 126 = 19% 25+
35 top to bottom
220 average
Should you take a QB in the first round, or wait?
Is the RB the obvious choice still?
Should you take a WR in the top Ten?
Although QB’s do score more consistently and have a higher average than RB’s, they still do not take their place in fantasy importance. The drop-off from 1-10 is far greater in RB than in QB and most if not all leagues require at least two RB’s while most leagues employ the one QB system. With only a difference of 6 pts per game from top to bottom as opposed to a 14 pt swing per game from top RB to #10. Can you imagine the drop-off to # 20. You need the backs to win.
You have to ask yourself, Do you want to have the possibility of a top 3 QB along with 1 top 20 RB and a starting RB that you hope can do something or grab two top 20 backs and grab a QB in like round 5 or later that would only give you around 3 pts less per game at QB than if you would have grabbed Manning in the first. Obviously, in non-PPR leagues, QB’s take on a little more importance, but leagues without PPR tend to also only use 4 pt passing TD’s to balance. No matter how you slice it, you have to take a running back with at least the first and probably the second as well.
Never take a WR in the first round. They don’t consistently put up points to warrant such a high pick. That is including the top tier players. Target a top 5-10 WR in the third round or later and then pick guys based solely on matchups in mid-later rounds. I have drafted Donald Driver the past two seasons fairly late and have picked up guys like Colston this year.
There will always be aberrations and exceptions to the rule, but 8 or 9 times out of ten the championship is given to the guy with two things going for him.
1. Solid starting RB’s
2. Balance
Starting backs give the team a core point total each week to build around with a balanced scoring team rather than sticking all the eggs into a powerhouse QB, WR and one viable stud back, maybe.
SF @ SEA
Seattle can wrap it up.
Gore – He is a yard monster. He gets so many long runs that he is winded and misses plays in the red zone.
SA – If he can’t score this week, I give up
D-Jax - He is out fool.
DAL @ ATL
Atlanta has won 2 in a row and 3 of the boys 4 losses are on the road. This year in the NFL, that pretty much means nothing.
Romo – Has the balloon deflated yet?
MB3 – two TD’s
TO - So Lonely, Oh So Lonely. What a bag of horse piss.
Vick – Remember when the falcon’s were 5-2, Vick remains to be overrated and overpaid and Falcon’s keep defending him and they are about to miss the playoffs AGAIN.
Who is their running back? – Griffith?
PHI @ NYG
Both teams look to make a playoff push.
Garcia – He is quick plug in against a defense that allowed Grossman to keep his job.
Westbrook – must start
Eli – I love watching him fail and with almost no oline, that is not difficult.
Tiki – The Eagles cannot even stop the run in wins.
Jacobs – TD man
CLE @ BAL
The Browns suck and Baltimore will face the Chargers for the REAL superbowl in the AFC this year.
McNair – It shouldn’t take much offense to win this one and the Ravens usually play down to their opponents.
DET @ GB
Aside from fantasy football, the only people that care about this game are Green Bay fans.
Kitna – He gets points.
Favre – Golden Boy is playing for that TD record.
HOU @ NE
This one is a laugher
Brady – Still pretty consistent, has a great matchup this week. Owned Jason Taylor in his press conference response to the Miami DE et al. discussing whether they did or did not know the snap count.
JAX @ TEN
Tennessee might be playing the best ball in the league with wins over Philly, Giants & Indy and almost winning against Baltimore. Jax doesn’t show up sometimes on the road.
Jones-Drew – He’s a bullet through that line and scoring like crazy.
Vinsanity - The guy is obviously playing above himself right now, but he is sure fun to watch.
MIA @ BUF
Miami is just about the only team as hot as the Titans beating New England, Minnesota & at Chicago. Buffalo needs two out of three to get to .500.
Lee Evans – Deceiving #’s with big games in between very mediocre ones.
Miami Defense - Seem to have Tom Brady figured out, these guys should give at least the other weeks to other QB's. David Garrard threw for 269 and 2 TD's.
NYJ @ MIN
The Jets are Vikings are both trying to sneak into the playoffs and most likely neither will.
Artose Pinner, are you serious?
PIT @ CAR
Pitt is done and Carolina is about to be.
Steve Smith – He only player worth anything in this game aside from FWP, of course.
TBB @ CHI
The Buccs are only a game away from the #1 pick. The Bears have played up and down, but still should be the #1 seed in the NFC.
No one should have any good fantasy performances out of this game, but it will probably end up 45-40.
WAS @ NO
Brees proved me wrong and I admit it. The guy is lights out and easily the best passer in the league this year. Only Donavon was close before he got hurt. Washington has one of the worst pass defenses.
Three Blind Mice – See how they run.
Reggie Bush – Aside from the one huge game, he has had a couple of good ones. He has been more consistent of late.
Joe Horn - He won't play the rest of the season, he will be healthy for the Real Playoffs.
DEN @ ARI
Cutler gets to face an awful pass defense and will show why Shanny picked him.
Walker – I see big numbers this week
Edge – Has two good games in a row and that ends this week.
STL @ OAK
St Louis completely choked after the fast start and now gets to face the most surprising pass defense this year
Steven Jackson – You have to start Holt and even Bulger, but Steven Jackson should the benefactor of points this week.
KC @ SD
The Chiefs are holding on by a thread and San Diego is rolling. LJ needs to turn in an LT game this week.
Simple Start Both RB’s
LT - 31 TD's in 13 games. That's it. It quiets anyone who says that old records were only 14 games. This record makes Druggie Taylor LT2. Amazing.
CIN @ IND
Shootout in Indy is what is expected and if you like scoring you will be happy. Indy cannot tackle and the best way to keep Manning out of the endzone is to not give him the ball.
Start Palmer, Rudi, Chad, TJ, Peyton, Wayne, Harrison,not Addai-he ain't playing, even Reggie Kelly.
I know that if you made it this far, you are savvy enough to know about the players who play and the players who watch. Always go with your gut and don’t look back.
Professor Ellis D Trails
